ABARES outlook for ag 2024 was full of detail, including forecasts for the price of beef, sheep and farm income. Here are the key graphs that tell the story.
According to ABARES, cropping has soared ahead of the other main ag industries in terms of average cash income per farm, growing to to more than $600,000 by 2021. See the chart above.
Key Points
Despite some improvements in weather and farm prices since December, average broadacre farm cash incomes are still expected to be well below average in 2023–24 at $131,000.
Broadacre farm cash incomes are likely to increase in 2024–25, with a mean forecast of $192,000.
Higher forecast farm incomes in 2024–25 are being driven by potential improvements in growing conditions for winter crop production, and forecast increases in beef and sheep prices.
However, these factors are being offset by lower forecast crop prices and expected increases in farm costs tied to increased production.
ABARES is forecasting a mixed picture for income based on the enterprise.
Despite lower input prices, overall expenditure on inputs is expected to increase in 2024–25, driven by higher production and hence greater input use.
ABARES sees a rise in the cattle price next year
Key points
Value of beef, veal and live cattle production to rise by 25% to $15.7 billion in 2024–25.
Value of beef and live cattle exports to increase by 6% to $13.0 billion in 2024–25.
Beef export prices to rise in 2024–25.
Saleyard prices expected to rise in 2024–25, reflecting increased restocker demand.
Value of beef production over the medium term to fluctuate with changes in seasonal conditions.
ABARES does warn, however, that the US herd liquidation will end relatively soon, which will reduce American imports as they ramp up production.
ABARES forecasts a strong outlook for the sheepmeat industry with world demand expected to increase in key countries. Prices are also looking promising in the longer term.
Key Points
Value of sheep meat and live sheep production to rise by 21% to $4.4 billion in 2024–25.
Value of sheep meat exports to increase by 24% to $4.1 billion in 2024–25.
Export prices to rise in 2024–25.
Saleyard prices expected to rise in 2024–25, reflecting increased restocker demand.
Value of sheep meat production over the medium term to fluctuate with changes in seasonal conditions.