Australian farmland values are tipped to increase a “modest amount” in 2026 as the rural real estate sector continues to consolidate.The red meat sector is expected to perform well, as are feedlots, arable farming with secure water, beef and sheep pastoral assets with verified long-term carrying capacity and rainfall records and natural capital with bankable carbon rights.
Regionally, Queensland and northern NSW are tipped to continue their solid run, while the WA wheatbelt should perform well and the dairy market could surprise in Victoria, Tasmania and NSW.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Agricultural Analyst Sean Hickey said the heady price gains of 2020 to 2023 had truly passed, but the market finished 2025 in a stronger position than it started in.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Agricultural Analyst Sean Hickey. Pic: Supplied.
“We’re expecting relatively modest growth in 2026, properly hovering around that 5 per cent-ish range nationally,” he said.
“We have seen the underlying drivers of the market move towards more positive positions across 2025, so the underlying demand should certainly still be there.
“But we’re also not expecting to see the substantial growth that we might have seen in years gone by.”
Improving market conditions toward the end of 2025 are expected to lift rural land sale volumes after a subdued start to the year.
Mr Hickey said long-term consolidation of landholdings had structurally limited the number of properties coming to market, but a shift in demand made conditions more favourable for sellers compared with early 2025.
This has prompted some landholders, who previously chose not to sell into weaker conditions, to reconsider their timing as the market shows signs of turning.
“Supply should be improved compared to what it was across both your really productive, strong performing regions, but also in some of those more marginal areas… so parts of South Australia and Western Victoria where the drought hit really hard.”
Colliers Head of Agribusiness, Transaction Services/Agribusiness Rawdon Briggs said the market was shifting from the debt-fuelled “buy everything” boom of 2021 and 2022 to a more fundamentals-driven approach.
In 2026, he said buyers would be more focused on whether an asset was the right fit for their business, including whether it could lower operating costs and deliver reliable, if modest, cash returns.
Importantly, he said those returns would need to hold up in below-average seasonal conditions.
Colliers Head of Agribusiness, Transaction Services/Agribusiness Rawdon Briggs. Pic: Supplied
“This has amplified more focus on water security and rights, and asset scale and quality matter more now than in the past 15 years,” Mr Briggs said.
Mr Briggs said assets with strong fundamentals were expected to outperform in 2026, particularly large-scale arable farms with secure water and logistical advantages.
He said efficiently run cropping platforms with diversified rotations and reliable water were well placed to benefit from stable margins and export competitiveness, even with global prices subdued, particularly in markets such as the WA wheatbelt.
He said intensive irrigated orchards with a high level of mechanisation and defendable, high-percentage owned water rights would continue to attract buyer interest.
“Permanent plantings backed by a mix of high‑reliability entitlements will trade at premiums… if they can show real supply chain diversity or long-term relationships that convert to earnings,” Mr Briggs said.
He said beef and sheep pastoral assets with verified long-term carrying capacity and rainfall records would be rewarded, particularly those showing herd and flock stability through volatile seasons.
“Buyers will reward asset owners with demonstrated herd and flock stability in volatile years,” he said, noting pasture improvement and proximity to feedlots or key markets were becoming increasingly important.
Mr Briggs said natural capital projects with bankable carbon rights, transparent methodologies and co-benefits such as biodiversity or First Nations partnerships were also highly valued by institutional and ASX-listed buyers.
He also tipped dairy to “surprise on the upside,” across much of Victoria, Tasmania and NSW.
“The strongest earning we have seen in a decade will drive succession decisions and sales now that New Zealand is in full recovery, the trend is set,” Mr Briggs said.
Mr Briggs said the pause of the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement and the imposition of a 55 per cent tariff on Australian beef had come at a comparatively favourable time, with cow herd numbers in the US and Canada at 70-year lows and production still falling.
He said supportive exchange rates into Japan and the US, combined with ongoing instability in global pork supply following African swine fever outbreaks, were reshaping global protein markets.
Mr Briggs noted Australia’s beef sector was well placed to absorb and adapt to the disruption, with processing capability and MLA-led export diversification now the strongest it has been in more than 50 years.
LAWD Senior Director Col Medway said the red meat sector had “the most wind” under it at the moment.
LAWD Senior Director Col Medway. Pic: Supplied.
“I’m expecting that to flow through for increased appetite for expansion for producers in grazing markets,” he said.
While Mr Medway said he expected that would flow through to higher transaction volumes, he doesn’t anticipate a spike in sale prices.
“I think profitability has got a lot of catching up to do,” he said.
“I think land price has got ahead on profitability, hence the crunching on return on assets.
“I expect that’s going to result in an increase in transaction numbers, probably at the same price points.”
Strong seasonal conditions across Queensland and northern NSW were underpinning some of the hottest grazing markets in the country, with Central Queensland through to the Maranoa also recording standout demand.
Mr Medway said consecutive strong seasons had driven intense competition for grazing assets in those regions, which he described as “probably the hottest grazing market in Australia” right now.
He said the feedlot sector had emerged as a major talking point in the second half of 2025, with demand for that asset type accelerating.
“We’ve got record numbers of cattle on feed, and that’s flowing through to increased demand for feedlots, especially from people from either end of the supply chain,” Mr Medway said.
“So processors (are) looking backwards to feedlots, and then breeders looking forward to finishing options.”
Mr Medway said numerous feedlots had been “eagerly chased”, while others were close to transacting.
Western Australia is also expected to see improved confidence following another record grain harvest, despite softer commodity prices.
Mr Medway said strong production would help underpin WA’s rural property markets, while improving seasonal conditions in south-east South Australia and Victoria were likely to support renewed buyer interest.
“Although grain prices are subdued, certainly production has been strong and I think that’s going to help in WA,” he said.
Kylie Dulhunty is a journalist with more than 20 years experience covering everything from court to health. Today, Kylie loves nothing more than turning market trends, industry insights and epic property sales - residential, rural and commercial into captivating stories.