A substantial cloud band has generated high levels of rainfall across WA, not unusual as some suggest for this time of year, with this being the wettest time of year for pockets of western and southern WA south from the tropics, with fronts generating cloud bands. We are lucky this year they have shown up very late to bring welcome falls.
The cloud band is heading east and breaking up and shearing south, but some of the rainfall will move over the southern areas of SA and into VIC and across southern NSW. Heaviest of the rainfall in areas exposed to the westerly wind regime and across western and northern TAS.
The rain band will clear over the weekend and the rainfall should cease. But the airstream being out of the northwest will keep temperatures up and this will allow for another rain band to form next week ahead of a colder shift.
That cold front comes through southern WA from Sunday into Monday and will shift north and interact with the large scale warm up that is in place, helping to promote yet another cloud band and rain event for SA, VIC and NSW/ACT. This could drop one month's worth of rain for some areas.
The front moves through and following that, a colder airmass will move across Southern Australia from WA through SA by mid week and the southeast and east later next week. There could be near record warmth for parts of QLD and NSW ahead of this.
Another cloud band may develop as the cold air shifts north from next weekend, this promoting a rainfall signal increasing over parts of NSW and QLD back through the NT and northern WA. That is quite plausible.
El Niño is likely to be declared by some agencies over the coming weeks, and while that is no surprise, it does mean that the impacts of the climate driver are yet to come, meaning that these could potentially be the last few weeks of wetter weather for southern Australia. The drier signals have been present for the eastern areas of the country for most of this year, about northeast NSW and southeast QLD.
I will have more next week.
Karl Lijnders is the founder of Weather Matters, which provides short, medium and longer-range weather forecasts, updated daily, with a focus on Australian ag and what the weather and climate means to you.
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