I’m not a meteorologist. I won’t pretend to be. Rather I am a cattle producer, and I remember how quickly confidence, and livestock prices, unravelled in 2023 when exceptionally dry forecasts hit the press.
So while others are starting to whisper about a certain weather pattern that begins with “El” and ends in “Niño”, I’ll steer clear of labels and stick to what the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is actually saying. No forecast is perfect, but it’s the best national guide we’ve got at this point.
The BOM’s long-range forecast for March to May outlook, released on Thursday, points to:
Below average rainfall likely across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia.
Daytime temperatures very likely to be above average across most of the same region.
Overnight temperatures likely to very likely to be above average across much of the country.
For much of northern Australia, rainfall probabilities are more neutral, with roughly equal chances of above, below or near average totals. For March specifically, parts of Cape York, the Top End and the northern Kimberley have a 60-70% chance of above average rainfall.
That aligns with what many northern producers are seeing now. Recent falls have been positive and the seasonal setup remains comparatively solid.
The BOM is also forecasting that maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia through autumn. Minimum temperatures are also likely to be above average across much of the country.
Warmer oceans around Australia are part of the backdrop. Sea surface temperatures in January were among the warmest on record in the Australian region, and forecasts suggest above-average ocean temperatures are likely to persist through autumn. Warmer water can add energy and moisture to weather systems, though where and when that falls is another question entirely.
At the same time, La Niña in the tropical Pacific is easing.
The Bureau's latest Drought Statement, released last week, underlines that parts of southern and inland Australia are already carrying moisture deficits:
In other words, if autumn rainfall does undershoot in the south, it will be landing on profiles that are already tighter than ideal.
The north, by contrast, currently has a more constructive setup, with recent rainfall and more neutral to positive short-term signals.
Forecasts are probabilities, not promises. March itself does not strongly favour a particular rainfall outcome for much of the country. Even across the south, “likely below average” does not mean “no rain”.
Producers in the southern states should be alert to the risk of tightening feed budgets, earlier-than-usual decision points and increased water pressure if the outlook verifies.
But we’ve also learned the cost of overreacting to seasonal models.
As always, seasonal outlooks are a risk management tool, not a production plan. The message at this stage is simple: monitor conditions closely, sharpen contingency plans where needed, but don’t trade fear.
Autumn will tell the story soon enough.