September experienced highly variable rainfall across Australia, continuing the pattern of dry conditions across the southern mainland, while parts of the north, centre and Tasmania recorded above-average rainfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released its latest drought statement this week, which highlights both ongoing challenges and areas of cautious optimism for livestock producers, depending on their location.
Across southern and south-eastern Australia, including much of Victoria and South Australia, the report showed that September rainfall was well below average. This adds to long-term dry trends in these areas, with soils still struggling to recover.
Year-to-date rainfall deficiencies have expanded across Victoria and South Australia, while Tasmania reduced its deficit areas. The report also shared that year-to-date rainfall deficiencies had mostly cleared in NSW, which may come as a surprise to many producers.
Streamflow in southern catchments and the Murray–Darling Basin remained low in September, reflecting ongoing dry conditions. Around 28% of streamflow sites across the Murray–Darling Basin recorded below-average flows, with some locations marking their lowest September levels on record.
Soil moisture in the south-east continues to be a concern. Areas including parts of Victoria, southern NSW, and south-east Tasmania recorded root-zone soil moisture in the lowest 10% of historical records for September. Low soil moisture can directly affect pasture growth and crop establishment, particularly critical for livestock feed and winter cropping. Evaporative stress also remains elevated in much of the south-east, adding pressure on water resources and pasture conditions.
Water storages across southern and eastern Australia reflect this variability. By the end of September, total storage levels nationally were around 70% of capacity, 5% lower than this time last year.
Looking forward, the Bureau’s long-range outlook has shifted slightly since earlier forecasts of above average rain for spring. The BOM is now forecasting rainfall to likely be above average across much of the eastern half of Australia from October to December. Days are expected to be warmer than average in most regions, while nights are very likely to remain above average. The wet signal for October has weakened, but it has strengthened for November, offering producers some hope of meaningful rainfall before summer.
For producers and livestock agents, the message remains that southern regions must continue to manage water resources carefully, monitor soil moisture, and plan for ongoing dry conditions in some districts.
Areas of northern and eastern Australia, along with parts of Tasmania, are likely to see improved soil and water conditions heading into the warmer months, providing a cautiously optimistic outlook for spring.
Meanwhile, the Very Fast Break, a seasonal climate video by Agriculture Victoria's Dale Grey, was released on Thursday.
In his monthly update, Mr Grey analyses 12 climate models and "La Nina-like behaviours" and what they mean for the state in the coming months.
He said confidence was low of a wetter outcome of this event and explains the historic odds of average rain falling where it is dearly needed.
Check out the full video above for his full insights.