Recent weeks have seen a significant milestone hit for those who like looking at cattle price data. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and the Frozen Cow 90CL Export Beef Indicator have reached parity. If nothing else, it means resistance to higher prices is coming.
Figure 1 shows the EYCI and the 90CL meeting in early September at around 995¢/kg. For some time, the basis for forecasting support for cattle prices has been strong export demand and high global beef prices, which drive processor profits and therefore cattle demand.
The confluence of the EYCI and 90CL has been due to falling export prices and strong cattle prices. The 90CL indicator has been sliding due to more of our supply being directed to the US, lower cattle prices in the US, and some stronger competition from South American countries. The stronger Aussie dollar is also not helping.
The reasons for stronger cattle prices locally are a little harder to define. There is an element of tighter finished cattle supply. Figure 2 shows cattle slaughter has come off its autumn peak but has been relatively steady over winter.
Young cattle prices are seemingly being spurred on by some old-fashioned grass fever, especially in the south. Good winter rainfall, and the smaller than usual herd in the south, has farmers with excess feed needing mouths. This obviously discourages selling and encourages buying, and hence we have store cattle prices have moved to a strong premium to finished cattle.
While we are looking at the relationship between the EYCI and 90CL, it’s prudent to update Figure 3. Figure 3 charts annual slaughter against the spread between the EYCI and the 90CL. It is interesting to see 2026 year to date has moved back onto the 2000-2018 trend line from the ‘oversupply’ trend line in 2025. For 2026 we used the year-to-June slaughter and the 2025 second-half slaughter, along with the average spread year-to-date.
The current EYCI-90CL spread over zero suggests young cattle are overpriced given current slaughter rates. We have seen the EYCI maintain parity or a premium to the 90CL before, but it’s when supply is historically tight. In 2026, we are headed for the strongest slaughter since the 1970s.
The EYCI and 90CL are at the same price for the first time in three and a half years.
Weaker cattle supply and strong restocker demand are driving the EYCI.
It’s unusual to have EYCI-90CL parity when slaughter levels are strong; prices might find some resistance.