With the Tokyo Olympics finally underway, talk of world records, gold medal efforts and sensational achievements will be everywhere over the next two weeks. However, the Olympic motto of “Faster, Higher, Stronger” is probably the most concise way to describe the state of the Australian cattle market heading into the final week of July.
Faster – The speed of the recent rise in the cattle market has been unprecedented. The EYCI first broke through 700c on August 9, 2016. Exactly 1,535 days later it cracked 800c barrier on October 22, 2020. The next milestone, at 900c, was exceeded on April 14, 2021 - only 174 days later. Smashing through milestones “faster” reached a peak last Thursday, at 1003c/kg cwt – taking only 99 days.
Higher – The market has never been this high, whether it be for young cattle, breeding cattle, or stud cattle.
Stronger – The fundamentals for the Australian producer have rarely, if ever, been “stronger”. The generational low cattle supply, rain and robust export demand has provided primary producers with a sensational tail wind heading into the second half of 2021 – leading to the “faster and higher” results.
However, reviewing the enormous results from the AuctionsPlus cattle market for the last two weeks, it was clear there were two distinct forces – insatiable buyers and astute sellers.
In the past two weeks, cattle supplies offered exclusively via AuctionsPlus were up 22% and 45% respectively on the corresponding weeks in 2020. Indeed, last week’s 18,617 head was the largest cattle offering so far in winter 2021. Is this a response to the record high prices on offer by astute sellers sensing a peak in the market? Is it significant that 5,155 head of light (200-280kg) heifers were offered during the past two weeks – an increase of 143% on the corresponding period in 2020?
Further investigation into the surge of light heifer listings signalled that the prices received for heifers was far too great for some vendors to ignore. Last week the category averaged $1,455/head – 34% higher than the same week last year. Interestingly, the number of PTIC heifers offered in the past two weeks was up 77% on the corresponding period last year. However, much of this increase, unlike the young heifers, is due to the increased attention given to offering PTIC assessed heifers, given the current returns.
Even with the surge in cattle numbers online in the past two weeks, the demand from buyers appeared to increase. The average clearance rates for the past two weeks exceeded 90% for many of the main categories, seemingly undeterred by the record high prices required to secure lots. With seasonal conditions forecast to remain very wet into early spring, confidence does not seem to be an issue for buyers!
In the week ahead cattle numbers offered through the platform will be closely watched. Clearance rates for lighter heifer lines and PTIC heifers and cows will be scrutinised meticulously. Early indications are for more excellent lines of heavy young steers to be on offer, while the very wet conditions through several key regions may impact access and delivery logistics.
For the week ahead, some of the lines to be offered* include:
42 x 244kg weaned Angus steers, A/c Brooksby Pastoral, Tumbarumba NSW
76 x 334kg Angus steers, A/c G L Whitehead Pty Ltd, Neville, NSW
38 x 1st calf Santa Gertrudis heifers with Santa & Angus CAF, A/c RG & MA Sutherland, Wellington, NSW
30 x PTIC Santa Brahman X cows, A/c Jarrah Cattle Company, Banana, QLD
202 x PTIC Brahman heifers, A/c MK Agricultural Company, Ogmore, QLD
27 x PTIC Speckle Park heifers, A/c MC, AD, CM Steinert, Flaxman Valley, SA
8 x PTIC Poll Hereford/Friesian heifers, A/c A D Spencer, Leongatha, VIC
7 x 332kg unweaned Murray Grey & Angus X steers, A/c Craig Flowers, Mole Creek, TAS
(*Subject to change upon finalisation of sale catalogue)