Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Q3 2025 Slaughter & Production figures for Livestock – providing the Beef industry with detailed, state level information on key production metrics for the sector.
Despite how delayed these figures are, the information provides important insight into how 2025 is performing and with that data, begins to paint a picture of important trends and risks monitor into 2026.
The mandatorily reported data provides valuable insights into emerging trends and a backward-looking confirmation of how the sector has performed. Two key matters which are intricately intertwined I will examine in this column.
At a quarterly level total national cattle slaughter has gone from 38-year lows in 2022 to 47-year highs in 3 and a half years as of Q3 2025. This statistic tells you two things, the first highlights how significant the growth in the cattle herd has been and simultaneously, how strongly the processing sector has recovered its capacity post COVID – to align with this increase in cattle supply.
National slaughter numbers at 2.475m head for Q3 was the highest of any quarterly result since Q3 1978. Underpinning this, at a state level, this quarter saw;
Alongside these historically significant slaughter volumes, beef production for Q3 reached a new record high, surpassing the previous record set in Q2 2025. Volumes for the quarter were 759,270 metric tons.
The driving force behind this production figure is clearly the slaughter numbers, but importantly, the stability in carcase weights in 2025 have added to this performance. The strong carcase weights come despite the number of female cattle processed, reaching their highest quarterly volume since Q3 1977, and the drought in southern Australia forcing turnoff of lighter cattle.
What that carcase weight insight tells you, is how much of an influence the grainfed sector is having on offsetting female kill numbers and drought induced turnoff to ensure carcase weights remain strong.
Combined, VIC, NSW & QLD throughput volumes account for 90% of total Australian cattle slaughter, and in Q3 2025 all 3 states were operating at 100% capacity in throughput terms relative to 10-year averages.
Beef Processor’s capacity, if seasonal conditions turn dry for an extended period in Australia’s major cattle regions in 2026 and beyond, is going to become the next major beef industry issue will face.
The fact that the major processing states are at capacity, yet the major cattle regions are not in drought, coupled with the fact that the cattle herd will grow in 2025, ensuring strong supply of stock well into 2027 paints a backdrop that must seriously be acknowledged for the broader implications of market & price performance moving into 2026.
Capacity does exist in the system for additional shifts to be added to schedules, some of which has already occurred in 2025 and we’ve seen in 2025 that the location of cattle are no barrier to travelling long distances to be processed.
The industry finds ways to adjust and deal with changing dynamics, yet with the lack of additional processing facilities built in the country, record numbers of cattle on feed and a herd at 20-year highs, its important to recognise the broader landscape.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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