The global beef market discussion was focussed primarily on the United States for much of the past few years - until China made headlines with new quotas for its imported beef at the start of the year. Now that many of those quotas are either full or nearly so, the focus has well and truly turned to Brazil. Of course, current Brazilian beef production and where it is headed post-China quota this year brings us right back to where we started - the US, Australia’s largest export beef market.
Getting exact current trade data from Brazil isn’t exactly straightforward, but according to the Steiner Consulting Group, Brazil sent 158,377MT of beef to China in June, an increase of 18% year-on-year for the month. This would have brought Brazilian beef exports to China for the first half of the year up 24% on the same period last year and would see Brazil having filled roughly 90% of its annual quota by the end of July. Total beef exports out of Brazil for the first half of 2026 were at record levels (both for volume and value), boosted by the rush to get product into its major market, with China making up about 48%.
The US is Brazil’s second largest market so far this year, and year-to-June volumes rose 13% from the previous first-half period (that figure is from Brazil’s ABIEC figures). According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), for the January to May period of this year: Brazil has been the biggest supplier of beef into the US, about 10% above Australia. The dynamic change in the US market due to the China quotas is yet to fully impact. After the first five months last year, US imports of Australian beef sat about 25% below Brazilian beef, but by the end of the year the Australian volume was 30% above Brazil.
Coming back home, beef exports from Australia to the US in the first half of the year have increased 20% year-on-year, which included a jump of 39% in June. Last month's beef exports to China fell 71% compared to June 2025 after our quota was filled, which left them 10% higher for the first half of the year, and dropping them to Australia’s third largest market in terms of Volume for 2026, below the US and Korea. First half volumes to Korea are up 40% year-on-year, with Australia’s total beef exports also up by 15%.
The USDA’s latest livestock industry projection, released in June, forecasts US domestic beef production to be about 2% lower in 2026 than it was in 2025. Australia’s total beef exports were forecast to rise 2% year-on-year in 2026 in the Meat & Livestock’s March industry projections. Despite the first-half record, the USDA forecasted in March that Brazilian cattle slaughter, and subsequent beef exports, would fall 2% year-on-year in 2026.
The US imported lean beef price has been on the decline, albeit from historically high levels, down about 8% from April when it peaked, and now sits at a significant discount to domestic lean beef returns. While it is likely the race to fill Chinese quotas has changed the seasonality of beef exports, especially out of Brazil which traditionally sees bigger volumes in the second half of the year, what is left to come out of both Brazil and Australia will now be more focussed on the US. This is also going to be timed with traditionally seasonal increase in US cow slaughter due to dairy cow turn-off.