Mutton is the word of the month when it comes to the sheep market. The national indicator had been experiencing a gradual rise since the beginning of the year, until April, that is. Since then, we’ve seen dramatic rises and falls week to week. Currently, the National Mutton Indicator is sitting at just above 510¢/kg, having lost nearly 50¢/kg in the past seven days. But this was after it lifted 80¢/kg for the month and had the largest lift on record. It is also trading above the five-year average, which prior to April, we hadn’t seen since early 2023.
The NMI average last week was 528¢/kg, which was 4% above the five-year average for that specific week, and 12% above the 10-year figure. So far, in 2025, the indicator has averaged 431¢/kg, nearly 40% stronger than the same period in 2024, and similar to 2023. Looking at the NMI chart, we go back to 2018-19 for a comparative year, both in terms of how the price has been trending, and the market scenario, areas of extreme dry and plenty of numbers. The same period in 2019 averaged 10¢/kg higher at 441¢/kg.
The NMI discount to the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator can also offer some insight. It is currently sitting at about 35%, which again is closer than we’ve seen since mid-2023, prior to the past month. Since the livestock market plummeted in the second half of 2023, the discount has been trending at 50% or higher. However, it has currently reverted back to a similar figure as seen in the first half of 2019, sitting between 30-40%.
What does differ from 2019 currently is slaughter. According to the National Livestock Reporting Service weekly figures, sheep slaughter is currently averaging 189,470 head. For the first five months of 2019, that number was just above 153,000 head. Total year-to-date sheep slaughter was nearly 25% lower in 2019 than it is now. In fact, current YTD sheep slaughter is at 8% above 2024, which was a record throughput year for sheep. On the demand side, however, YTD mutton exports are also trading above 2019 by 20%.
Looking ahead, the five-year average has mutton peaking for the year in July and rising 10% between now and then. The increase was similar in 2019, climbing 11% by the second week of July. This would indicate the mutton price could be back up to 580¢/kg by mid-winter, well above this year’s average so far, but not at the extreme peak we saw at the start of May. The biggest factors to watch will obviously be the weather, with turnoff likely to continue to ramp up the longer the south waits for rain, and Trump’s tariff impact on demand from China.