After three consecutive years of third-quarter price gains, the cattle market's recovery from the 2023 downturn is showing signs of levelling off. Q3 2026 (July to September) has delivered the strongest September-quarter pricing since 2022, but for the first time in the recovery cycle, prices have stopped building through the quarter and clearance rates are easing across the board.
The national average price per head across Q3 2026 sits at $1,732, up 7.9% on the same period last year ($1,606) and well clear of the 2023 trough ($958). The AuctionsPlus Young Cattle Indicator (AYCI) has climbed to 547c/kg, the highest Q3 reading in AuctionsPlus data going back to 2021.
But the headline numbers mask a shift in market dynamics. The clearance rate has dropped to 80.8%, down from 88.2% in Q3 2025, and the gap between price and clearance tells a story worth unpacking.
AuctionPlus data shows that in a typical third quarter, cattle prices build gradually from July through to September as spring demand picks up and competition intensifies. That pattern has held reliably in recent years, with one exception:
This year has been different. Prices opened at $1,748 in July, already higher than any month in Q3 2025, but then plateaued. August averaged $1,725 and September has averaged $1,721 so far. That's a net movement of just -$27 across the quarter, compared with the $140 to $280 gains of the recovery years.
Unlike 2023, this year's flat trajectory is a fundamentally different signal: the market isn't falling, it's stabilising.
The weekly data reveals a quarter of two halves. July opened strongly at $1,832/head in the first week with an 82.9% clearance rate, before easing through the month. August saw prices dip to the low $1,600s in the first three weeks before a late-month surge. The week of August 24 delivered $1,855/head with a 94.6% clearance rate, the strongest single week of the quarter.
September has brought a return to the mid-$1,700s on price, but clearance has softened sharply. The week of September 14 saw final clearance drop to 66.2%, with 18,616 head offered, and that was only after post-sale negotiations lifted it from 44% at auction.
This week's results (September 21 to 25) point to a similar pattern. At-auction clearance came in at 41%, and post-sale negotiations had lifted it to 54% by 1.30pm Friday. Clearance is expected to keep lifting over the weekend, with the final figure due early next week. The average price slipped to $1,681/head, and the AYCI eased to 517c/kg, down from 537c/kg a fortnight ago.
The widening gap between at-auction and final clearance shows vendor expectations are adjusting to a softer market, with buyers and sellers increasingly meeting after the hammer falls rather than on it.
In a market like this, being strategic with reserves matters. Setting a reserve in line with current market signals, rather than last month's prices, gives lots a better chance of selling under the hammer. For lots that pass in, the post-sale negotiation window on AuctionsPlus remains an effective way to close the gap and get stock sold.
All three stock categories are posting year-on-year price gains, but the clearance story varies.
Breeding stock is commanding the highest prices at $2,392/head on a Q3 average, up 4.3% on Q3 2025, but has the weakest clearance for the quarter at 65%. At the time of writing, just 34.1% of breeding stock had cleared this week, with 1,108 of the 3,254 head offered finding a buyer. At $2,516/head for those that did sell, vendors are clearly holding firm on reserves that buyers are increasingly reluctant to meet.
Steers are averaging $1,787/head for the quarter, up 8.2%, with clearance easing from 90.7% to 84.8%. Steers remain the most resilient category. At the time of writing, this week's steer clearance of 70.8% was the highest of any category, with 5,325 of the 7,519 head offered selling at an average of $1,660/head.
Heifers are showing the strongest price recovery at $1,504/head, up 10.7%, though clearance has dropped from 89.5% to 82.5% for the quarter. This week was tougher, with heifer clearance at 42.7% at the time of writing and 2,622 of the 6,141 head offered selling at $1,372/head. The heifer market still has ground to make up, with prices well below the 2022 peak of $1,759.
The data points to a market that has moved into consolidation. Three signals stand out.
Prices have found a level. The flat July, August and September trajectory is a departure from the steady monthly gains of the past three years. At about $1,730/head nationally, the market appears to have reached a point where further upward movement needs a catalyst that hasn't yet arrived.
Clearance is the pressure valve. Rather than prices falling, the adjustment is showing up in fewer lots clearing. The 80.8% Q3 clearance rate is adequate but well below last year's 88.2%. When vendors hold firm and buyers pull back, the result is passed-in lots rather than lower prices, and that's exactly what the data shows.
Per-kilo value continues to strengthen. The AYCI at 547c/kg and average cents per kilogram at 541c are both Q3 highs. This suggests the market is repricing toward lighter, more efficient cattle. Buyers are paying more per kilogram even as per-head prices plateau, a sign that quality and weight efficiency are increasingly driving purchasing decisions.
Clearance has softened for three weeks running, and at-auction clearance has now sat below 45% two weeks in a row, with post-sale negotiations doing much of the work to get stock sold. Prices have also started to give ground, with the national average slipping below $1,700 for the first time since early August.
If clearance stabilises in the coming weeks with prices holding, the market will have found a sustainable, if quieter, trading range, a reasonable outcome after three years of recovery. But if the September pattern carries into the final quarter of the year, the growing volume of passed-in stock could start to weigh on vendor confidence and force a more meaningful price adjustment.
The question has shifted from how much further prices can climb to whether the current level can hold, and this week's results suggest that's being tested.
As always, weather is a defining factor with the cattle market - we're one good rain away from boosting confidence and the market tipping up again.