Australian beef exports have continued their strong run for the first four months of the year, tracking well above 2022 levels and higher or equal to 2021 levels.
March exports jumped over the five-year average with 99,000 tonnes, while April volumes were impacted by a series of public holidays and fell back to 2021 levels with 72,000 tonnes shipped.
Year-to-date export volumes are tracking 23% higher than last year.
Key Points
• China regains position as Australia’s top beef export destination.
• Exports are tracking higher than the last two years on the back of elevated slaughter.
• Export volumes are expected to be higher than the five-year average in May.
May has been the highest month for beef exports on average over the last five years and is expected to register strong volumes again.
Export volumes will be well supported by elevated slaughter numbers, with May totals expected to push back up over the five-year average, exceeding 2021 and 2022 levels.
Australia’s top four export destinations have been moving in almost perfect unison so far in 2023, suggesting that month-on-month changes are largely due to changes in Australian supply (Figure 2).
However, China (16,745 tonnes swt) has regained the mantel as Australia’s top beef export destination by a narrow margin of 1500 tonnes over Japan (15,225 tonnes swt).
China took the lion’s share of beef exports for an extended period in 2019 and then briefly in May 2020.
China’s lead in export volumes will need to be maintained for the next few months before it can be described as a clear trend, rather than just a short-term blip in an Easter-affected April.
The US and South Korea have been tracking fairly closely since January 2021 (Figure 2).
South Korea slipped to third position in April with 13,586 tonnes swt, down 32% from March and up 27% from April 2022.
The US saw similar movements and remained in fourth position. The 12,547 tonnes shipped to the US was down 27% from March and up 26% on April last year.