With southern weaner sales in full swing this week, the results of these provide a very timely, useful and broadly reflective barometer of where the cattle market is and importantly demand, for early 2026.
As seasonal conditions ebb and flow across Australia, so does the buying behaviour and spread of where cattle are sold to at these sales each year.
In 2026, returning a markedly more “even” spread of where cattle are being sold to, the dominance 12 months ago of northern NSW and QLD buyers has subsided, though still is relatively strong, aligning with the return of more local, southern Australian purchases. This is particularly relevant at a restocker/producer level.
As seasonal conditions have significantly improved for southern Australia, so has the demand for light cattle. Whilst at a producer level, demand for stock from north of the NSW/VIC border is there, the dominance of purchases for these regions has well and truly reduced compared with the 2025 edition of the sales where northerners were accounting for most purchases.
Across both backgrounding and bullock fattening operators, localised interest has lifted whilst the inclusion of buyers from western Victoria and southeast south Australia at the border sales this week show a strong appetite for stock. As the sales move further south and west, expect that localised buying interest to intensify, reduced freight rates adding to this.
At a feedlot level, feeders target these sales for purchases of cattle to be backgrounded to reach feeder weight during the traditionally tricky supply months in Winter – this is particularly relevant for Angus, British and European cattle. Again in 2026 similar outcomes are occurring, with feedlots operating across weight ranges to secure numbers – adding additional upward pricing pressure as feeders compete with other backgrounders or bullock fattening producers.
Tellingly, the demand for British cross and euro cattle in the sales later in the week has been very strong, with a lack of a clear discount between these weaners and Angus (generally).
I’m of the view that feedlotters are all looking to the middle of 2026 where heavy Angus feeder supply is likely be very short and as such, are looking to source lighter and cheaper, British and Euro cattle bought that these sales for feedlot entry during winter – which should act as a risk mitigator instead of being exposed to buying expensive heavy Angus feeders.
In addition to this, the demand for Angus feeders on the back of the expensive rates feeders reached during Winter in 2025 would and has encouraged a number of them to reduce their Angus feeding program exposure – and cycle into other feeder categories such as British and Euro’s – this dynamic is adding to the support for these cattle at the later sales this week.
Broadly in line with how markets ended 2025 – all of which were well up on the same period 12 months prior, prices this week are all stronger at the sales on the border than what they were 12 months ago. Similar results are to be expected as sales move south and into the western districts in coming days and weeks.
In terms of trends, the light cattle are well and truly commanding the stronger cents per kilogram rates and this demand as is standard in most market cycles is a product of buyers taking longer term views on backgrounding cattle.
Heifer prices continue to well and truly lag the steers with intermittent purchases by producers for heifers to enter the breeding herd a big contributor here. Seemingly, based on buying patterns, the producers are entering a “trading” focussed restock, the lack of heifers being bought to enter the herd to rebuild is supportive of this. As producers choose to focus on short term trades to generate cash flow and support repairing financials following the drought.
I’m of the view as the sales move into the western districts this trend of producers buying heifers for a trade rather than herd rebuild will continue – particularly following the spring many of those have had in 2025 and the long-range signals for a solid return to average seasonal conditions encouraging a trade.
I think we’ll look back at these sales and consider the breed differential or premium for Angus cattle, or the lack thereof, relative to British & Euro cattle as an early lead indicator for feedlots into the middle of 2026, that’s my major takeaway from these sales.
Furthermore, the more localised or southern buying interest and the lack of dominance from the north reflects a clear shift in distribution of cattle sold and probably is more reflective of what can generally be expected at these sales.
Overall, the sales have shown the return of the southern buying fraternity and prices are performing in line with market expectations. I would suggest they might have been a little higher in the major regions north of the border had received more widespread, genuine summer rainfall.
Localised demand ramps up as the dominance from northern buyers in 2025 subsides significantly.
Feeder buyers demand for British & Euro cattle indicate a shift away from Angus cattle for feedlot entry in winter of 2026?
Prices all above year ago levels.
Results show a distinct lack of restocker interest in future breeding heifers, suggesting a more dominant trade mindset for the local, southern buyers post drought.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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