Hay and silage season is upon us, and the market is in a vastly different state to this time last year. Here we take a look at fodder and feed grain markets and assess the value of perhaps locking in feed early.
This time last year the hay market was coming off the most extraordinary peak the market had seen. Two years of low production and a dry spring in key cattle areas had stripped all hay storages, with expensive fodder being shipped out of Western Australia.
The market highs had the desired effect, with plenty of hay cut last spring and south-eastern stores replenished. Prices over the last 12 months have been back to around normal, with a small rally in NSW thanks to a dry autumn keeping some support in the market.
In the south, hay markets are drifting lower as the balers start rolling. The last few weeks have seen pasture hay price midpoint in south-west Victoria drift a little lower, now sitting just above $205/t. Bumper hay crops in the Wimmera, which are about to be harvested, may be impacting southern prices, which are now at their lowest point since spring 2022.
In NSW hay, values are stronger, with the dry autumn having impacted supplies, which is keeping prices at a $40 premium to those in the south. On the Darling Downs and in WA, hay prices are remarkably steady, between the other two quoted here.
Feed grain prices remain a story of two separate markets, at least for now. Figure 2 shows feed wheat and barley bouncing along at export parity in the south, as good carryover supplies meet an expectation of strong yields.
In the north, the hangover from a tighter 2025-26 harvest and high freight costs has feed grain prices at a strong premium to the south. The big feed grain consumers in the Darling Downs region and around that area will be hanging out for harvest to begin, and push prices back closer to those in the south. This is provided there is an exportable surplus for the region.
The very non-El Nino like weather seen this winter has fodder prices at very reasonable levels, considering what we’ve seen in past El Ninos. Feed grain in the north is the only feed which could be considered expensive, but as harvest comes around, the gap to the south should narrow.
Hay prices have remained in a normal range for much of the last year.
Feed grain prices in the north remain elevated, compared to southern values.
Northern feed grain prices should ease as harvest grain becomes available.