Holy Cow - ABS Herd Numbers Broken Down

Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the 2019-20 Agricultural Commodities report, which included details about the size of the Australian cattle herd, as of June 2020. While AuctionsPlus reported the national herd was at its lowest annual level in 30 years, at 23.5 million head, further digging reveals just where the Australian herd was sitting for different stock categories broken down to a state level at the end of June 2020.

As the dominant cattle state, Queensland registered an 8% decline in the year to June 2020, at 10.5 million head. Of these 10.5 million head, the number of cows and heifers over one year of age recorded a 6% decrease on the previous year, to only 5.4 million head. Declines for the same category were also felt in Victoria, down 5%, to 952,000 head, with almost all the annual decline attributed to the beef cattle herd.

One of the most interesting results from the ABS figures was an increase in the NSW breeding herd, with a 2% rise in cows and heifers one year and older for the period, to 1.9 million head. While drought relieving rains only really started to impact from March 2020, the rise in NSW can only be attributed to the massive influx of cattle from Queensland and Victoria throughout the June quarter, as producers in neighbouring states capitalised on the rising cow and heifer market.

The Northern Territory experienced a significant year-on-year decline of 27% for cows and heifers over one year, and more significantly, a 36% drop in calves on the ground after unseasonably low rainfall throughout 2019 – reportedly the driest year on record since 1961 according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The production of calves in South Australia rose 6% to 280,000 head, while it fell 5% in Western Australia to 445,000 head, as northern regions of WA felt the impact of similar seasonal conditions to the NT.

Putting the national breeding herd in a historical context, the highest reported numbers for cows and heifers one year and older was in 1976, with 15.2 million head. As of June 2020, the national herd for breeding articles over one year was reported at 11.1 million head.

Putting some numbers around the reduced supply of suitable young and slaughter ready cattle in 2020-21 is the annual decline in the numbers of calves under one year. According to the ABS results, there were 365,000 fewer calves under one year of age available at June 2020, compared to the previous year. NSW has seen a consistently substantial decrease in calves on the ground from 2017-18 through to the release of this year’s ABS report – 2017-18 saw 1.2 million head, while 2019-20 has seen production of only 880,424 calves under one year of age – a 23% decrease over a two-year period.