Like the property market, the cattle market has buyers' and sellers' phases, and a new analysis of AuctionsPlus data can reveal where the market is sitting right now.
The analysis of weekly bid rates since 2019 shows that the weekly bid rate fell to 81% for the week ending September 26, the first reading below the buyers' market threshold in four months, as a strengthening El Niño and dry conditions weigh on buyer confidence.
The bid rate measures the proportion of cattle lots offered on AuctionsPlus that attract at least one bid in a given week, whether they go on to sell or are passed in. It's a simple way to measure how much competition is sitting behind the market.
It borrows from the way the property market is described. When most homes going to auction draw multiple bidders, it's called a sellers' market. When buyers have plenty of choice and can take their time, it's a buyers' market. Here we are applying the same thinking to cattle. The key difference is that it counts every lot that attracted interest, not just those that sold, so it captures buyer demand even when a vendor and buyer don't meet on price.
AuctionsPlus sorts the market into three bands based on the four-week rolling bid rate:
Price tells producers what cattle sold for. The bid rate shows how many buyers were in the market to get it there. Two weeks with similar prices can reflect very different conditions if one saw 97% of lots attract bids and the other 81%.
For vendors, knowing the market's mode helps with decisions on timing, reserves and presentation. For restockers, a buyers' market can be the best time to buy. For agents, it offers a clear, evidence-based way to set client expectations.
Once the market settles into a mode, it tends to stay there for months.
In 2019, drought drove heavy selling and the bid rate sat around 80%, with the average price across all cattle categories falling to a low of $697 per head. When the drought broke in early 2020, the bid rate climbed to 98%. From late April 2020, the market moved into sellers' territory and stayed there for almost all of 2021, peaking at 98% in late 2021 alongside an average price of $2,411 per head.
The reverse happened in 2023. With El Niño conditions and heavy supply, the bid rate fell to 77% and prices bottomed at $795 per head. The market spent most of that year in buyers' territory, the longest stretch in the dataset.
The biggest shifts in the data line up with seasonal turning points, rather than one-off events.
The FMD scare in July 2022 pulled the bid rate down to 84%, but it recovered to about 95% within a few months. The 2023 downturn, driven by seasonal outlook and supply, lasted most of the year.
The fastest turnaround came when the season changed. The bid rate went from around 80% in 2019 to 98% when rain returned in early 2020.
The two price lows in the dataset came during buyers' markets, and the price peak came at the end of the longest sellers' run.
The bid rate also began sliding well before prices hit their 2023 low. The rolling rate moved into balanced territory in April 2022 and briefly dipped into buyers' territory that August, while prices were still coming off their late 2021 peak.
The four-week rolling bid rate has eased from 97% in mid-September to 90.6%, placing the market in balanced territory.
Weekly results have fallen for three straight weeks, from 99% in the week ending September 5 to 97%, 89% and then 81%. The market had already eased once this winter, with the weekly rate falling to 87% in early August before recovering strongly.
Seasonal conditions and the outlook is weighing on buyers. With spring historically the least predictable season, the next few weeks of bid rates and rainfall will give producers a clearer picture of where the market is heading.
For vendors, a balanced market rewards preparation. Accurate assessments, clear descriptions and realistic reserves help lots stand out when buyers are more selective. Listing on AuctionsPlus puts cattle in front of buyers Australia-wide, widening competition when local demand thins out.
The market has eased into balanced territory at 90.6%, with the weekly bid rate falling to 81% as a strengthening El Niño weighs on buyer confidence.