Across the livestock sector late winter and early spring continually prove to be frenzied with stud sales and the surge of new season lambs injecting a wealth of activity across the board. For AuctionsPlus commercial sheep and lamb sales in the past three weeks, there has been a considerable surge in the total numbers offered online – which has been larger and earlier than in previous years.
For the commercial lamb and sheep sales, offerings for the past three weeks have totaled just over 295,000 head – which is 38% greater than the same period in 2020 and 10% higher than the drought induced sell-off in 2019. The increase in AuctionsPlus sheep and lamb numbers also aligns with numbers through MLA’s NLRS reported saleyards. For the past three weeks, MLA’s national lamb and sheep yarding are up 24% on 2020 and 2% from 2019.
As figure 1 shows, the growth in supplies into and through October are substantial and still anticipated…but has the recent surge taken the edge off the weeks ahead?
Interestingly, with the higher supplies offered in recent weeks, lamb prices continue to be well above previous levels during the first week of September – up 21-47% year-on-year and 28-39% higher than the average for the past five years. Anecdotal reports indicate that many producers in 2021 have decided to sell lambs which have only known wet conditions earlier than in previous years – lured predominately by the record high prices on offer.
However, if the enticement of high prices is a key driving factor for producers to sell earlier, it would also be rational to expect this to prove problematic to those producers looking to purchase lambs? Clearance rates through AuctionsPlus sales indicate that this is not the case. For the major lamb categories over the past three weeks, clearance rates have averaged 83% and has exceeded 90% for several categories, with 47,525 head of Merino wether lambs selling to 92% clearance rate last week. Comparatively, Figure 2 illustrates the average clearance rate for the corresponding three weeks in 2020 was 87%, while it was only 68% in 2019.
Current high lamb prices could well be the tonic required to flush lambs into the market - which is being met by voracious buyers anxious to make the most of the excellent spring in the offer. A potential run of dry weeks through September will provide a challenging test to the robust lamb market, with any contraction in supplies likely to underpin prices, while expectations will be largely met if large new season supplies continue to flow.