Meat & Livestock Australia has released the April wave of its Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS) report, which details key underlying changes in the herd size, both at a macro and more specific categorical and production system level, split by northern and southern production systems.
The major report, conducted twice per annum in April and November as well as a short update survey in July, provides key detail directly from Australian grassfed beef producers on sentiment, herd intentions, herd numbers, sales, themes influencing decisions and much more.
Analysis conducted by StoneX compares the herd size from the 2026 results to the 2025 and 2024 reports. The analysis below considers changes over the past 12 months and two years in the Australian beef herd.
The effects of change in the herd size over time, particularly over the past 12 months is going to play a role in determining future supply of different cattle types for end markets.
In the past 12 months, the adult cattle herd (not including calves) has grown by 6.15% or 1.72 million head. Importantly, the cow herd grew by 1.12 million head or 8.2% compared to April 2025. In 2 years, the adult herd has grown by 13.5% or 3.53 million to 29.66 million head.
When we consider what this means for the sector, fundamentally that is continued strong supply of cattle well into 2027. There won’t be a broader shortage of numbers generally for some time despite liquidation in northern NSW and southern QLD earlier this year.
The northern production system was the key driver of overall growth, accounting for 74% of the total increase in adult cattle numbers in 12 months.
Clearly, the strength of the wet season’s the north has experienced in 2024/25 and 2025/26 is translating into significant growth in the northern herd. A fundamental I’ve raised in this column at length, with the data now confirming that forecast.
Readers must remember that this figure doesn’t include calves, calves in my view are and should be included in the overall herd number. When they are, the herd as of November 2025, sat at 41.14 million head.
The major takeaway from the April BPIS results, was a 39% or 564,000 head increase in grassfed bullock herd numbers in 12 months. In two years, grassfed bullock numbers nationally have risen by 42% or 601,000 head.
The 2025/26 wet season fundamentally has been the major driver here of this massive increase in grassfed bullock numbers (castrated males over 2) – encouraging northern producers to retain steers that likely would have been sold as feeder cattle in 2026 and grow them out to kill weights in order to utilise the available grass generated by the wet season they’ve experienced.
Importantly, with northern producers opting to retain feeder steers to grow out to kill weights, it’s likely there will be implications for feeder steer supply from the major supply regions in central and northwestern QLD in the second half of 2026.
For more information and a detailed breakdown of these results, listen to the StoneX Australian Cattle & Beef market report podcast episode which discusses the April BPIS results at length below:
The forward contracting market for feeder cattle has seen reasonable engagement over this recent rally in cattle prices. Sellers, or beef producers continue to reasonably seek prices that reflect values close to where the spot market is trading out to the end of 2026.
Bids are more cautious, namely driven by concerns around sluggish and weaker meat prices which buy side clients believe may flow through to local feeder cattle prices.
Ultimately, the increasing number of producers who utilise risk management tools are seeking not only to manage price volatility but also importantly, protect margins on sale cattle into the future to protect profit on a portion of turnoff.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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