During the third quarter of 2021 (1 July – 30 September 2021), there was a total of 1.25 million sheep and lambs offered through the AuctionsPlus platform – an increase of 24% on the third quarter of 2020. Across the regions, the largest contributor to the 1.25 million head offered for the quarter was the NSW Riverina region, at 250,431 head, followed by Central West NSW and Western NSW, with 182,929 head and 116,919 head, respectively. Across the top three regions, total throughput numbers for sheep and lambs were up considerably year-on-year, with the Riverina offerings increasing 29%, NSW Central West 84% and Western NSW 47%.
Rounding out the top ten regions for the quarter was a total of six NSW regions, two from SA and one each from Queensland and Victoria (see Table 1). Given the seasonality of the national lamb market, the absence of major regions in Victoria will be quickly remedied in the fourth quarter, as very large numbers are offered several weeks later than NSW regions, especially from the southwest of the state. As a gauge, in the final quarter of 2020, the southwest region of Victoria offered 317,248 head of lambs on the AuctionsPlus platform – largely Merino wether lambs.
While the number of lambs and sheep offered through AuctionsPlus jumped 24% for the third quarter of 2021, the number of lambs and sheep purchased increased 30%, to 1.05 million head - indicating a slightly higher clearance rate for the quarter compared to 2020. Easily the busiest region for purchases for the quarter was the NSW Central West, at almost twice the rate as the second placed region and 31% more than the same period in 2020, at 300,705 head. Interestingly, this was the single largest regional quarterly purchases on record for AuctionsPlus, exceeding the old quarterly high, also held by the same region by 70,000 head. Given the excellent seasonal conditions through the Central West of NSW, combined with the historically low starting point in the flock, the increased purchases for the quarter come as no surprise, with producers keen to rebuild and capitalize on the abundant spring conditions into the final quarter of 2021.
In terms of clearance rates for the quarter, overall combined clearance rates were up year-on-year, albeit with some variability through the six main lamb categories reported weekly. A key feature noted from week-on-week analysis of the sheep and lamb clearance rates during the September quarter has been the volatility in the clearance rates for proven breeding lines - especially those lines with lambs at foot. Initially, the clearance rates for proven breeding lines at the immediate conclusion of a sale can be below 60%, as buyers fail to reach the reserve level set by vendors. However, in the hours and days that follow (normally within 48hrs), the clearance rates can surge to above 90%, as negotiations between the highest bidders and vendors deliver a transaction. For the September 2021 quarter, SIL ewe clearance rates were above the corresponding period in 2020 for SIL Merino ewes and SIL composite ewes, at 88% and 93% respectively. In contrast, the quarterly clearance rates for SIL first cross ewes and shedding breeds was slightly lower than in 2020, at 72% and 90%, respectively.
The lamb and sheep markets were resilient throughout the September quarter, and while comparatively flying under the radar compared to the attention captured across the cattle markets, several records were broken throughout the quarter. Indeed, in an absence of the run-away cattle prices, more headlines would have been allocated to the strength of the lamb and sheep markets in recent months. National lamb and sheep prices for the September quarter averaged 17-37% above the corresponding period in 2020, with the largest increase for the heavy lamb category, up 37% and averaging 931c/kg cwt (MLA’s NLRS).
Mapping the seasons and movement – September quarter 2021 - 2019
While numbers and charts can be instructive, the introduction of geographic and visual representation of AuctionsPlus offerings and purchases has been well received in recent weeks. Below are three sets of heat maps for the past three September quarters – 2021, 2020 and 2019. The first set of maps, for 2021, show the bulk of lambs offered out of the Riverina and Central & Western NSW (as per Table 1), with the dominant buying region in the Central West of NSW (as per Table 2). Contrast the 2021 map with 2019, which shows a much larger and dispersed selling region, as drought conditions deteriorated into the warmer spring months. With the 2020 map, the seasonal recovery after the huge drought flock liquidation shows the migration of buying back into the regions that sold off intensely through 2019.
AuctionsPlus quarterly “Buyer and Seller Regional Rankings” has been developed by the AuctionsPlus Market Insights (AMI) team to increase market awareness regarding the transactional trends and regional movement of sheep and lambs through Australia’s largest livestock market. With all livestock sales on AuctionsPlus, the geographic data of the participants is provided, but remains confidential on an individual basis. However, the aggregation of the geographic data of buyers and sellers over a longer period, in this instance quarterly, can be very instructive and highlight various transactional trends in regions across Australia.