Detailed analysis of AuctionsPlus commercial cattle sale data has reinforced the strong seasonality to the supply of PTIC cows and PTIC heifers. Corresponding with the main Spring joining program, the supply of PTIC cows and PTIC heifers on AuctionsPlus peaks in Autumn and falls away in Spring.
Figure 1: Supply seasonality of PTIC cows and heifers on AuctionsPlus, 2016 – 2022* (exc. Dec 2022)
On average, the peak of PTIC heifer supply occurs in March, while PTIC cows peak in May. The difference is likely due to the influence of calves-at-foot on cows and the timing of weaning, keeping cows on farm for longer. Heifers are not constrained by a calf and are able to be listed for sale immediately after pregnancy testing.
There is also a greater proportion of PTIC heifers sold in November and December than PTIC cows; largely due to trading activities, where producers purchase, or retain young heifers for the purpose of joining in an Autumn calving program and selling as PTIC for a higher price. These heifers are usually joined in May/June and sold in November/December, for a February/March calving. The same trend has not been apparent in PTIC cows, which are less suitable for trade activity due to their more permanent position in the breeding herd with calves at foot – generally in a Spring calving program.
Looking forward to 2023
The supply of PTIC heifers has increased significantly in 2021 and 2022 (see Figure 2), largely due to favorable seasonal conditions and rampant herd rebuilding and increased trading activity. With abundant pasture currently available and falling prices, producers are under no pressure to sell their young heifers and are increasingly opting to retain, join and sell their heifers as PTIC later. Looking forward to 2023, a surge in PTIC heifers hitting the box in March 2023 is again expected – possibly exceeding 15,000 head for the month.
Figure 2: Monthly PTIC heifer prices and offerings through AuctionsPlus, 2016-2022* (exc Dec 2022)
The first possible indication of this trend may have been apparent at the first Naracoorte weaner sale. The offering of about 800 young heifers was well down on the 2,000 - 3,000 head usually offered, while steer numbers were up slightly in comparison. This has also been reflected in the online listings of steers and heifers on AuctionsPlus in 2022. The proportion of heifers to steers has dropped to 42% in 2022, compared to 45% between 2016 and 2021.