The insights from the report indicate herd size change has remained stable relative to April, while there was a slight increase in Autumn calves delivered. Although the biggest move was the shortfall in cattle sales, particularly the scale of that shortfall in Queensland.
Nationally, 46% of producers sold less cattle between January 1 and June 30, 2025 than expected when surveyed in April 2025. This was most prominent in NSW, Queensland and Tasmaina.
Although the real standout was the shortfall in cattle numbers sold by Queensland producers specifically, aligning perfectly with anecdotal evidence from the marketplace and the influence of the strong season QLD has experienced in 2025.
Queensland producers sold 720,000 less cattle in H1 2025 than expected compared to numbers in April of this year. That shortfall accounted for 90% of the national total of 800,000 head.
Producers were then asked what influenced their decision to sell fewer numbers than expected. The main reasons for the fewer numbers sold was 42% indicating cattle had not met target weights and 21% held cattle due to forecast stronger prices, a further 17% indicated prices weren’t strong enough to encourage a sale (producers can select multiple options in this question).
The results from the July BPIS report confirm straight from the producers themselves, the influence of the late March rains in Queensland and subsequently good falls since and what it has done to cattle retention and how the season has shaped a more bullish outlook on market pricing. The BPIS reports data aligns with substantially lower Queensland saleyard throughput relative to long term averages, whilst other states are seeing yarding numbers sharply higher.
The influence of rain cannot be understated in its contribution to encouraging producers to retain stock and the data indicates that with 720,000 head less sold than expected in April.
What this translates to, will ultimately lead to higher numbers of marketed cattle in the second half of 2025. This doesn’t necessarily mean a rush of cattle will be marketed, particularly with continued falls supporting oats crop longevity and soil moisture levels for optimal pasture production in Spring. Rather a continued growth in Queensland marketings of stock as cattle reach optimal weights and are sold.
In line with the broader rally in the spot price, bids and offers on the StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap have also strengthened in both the front month (<4 months) and deferred contracts (>4 months).
The volatility in cattle prices so far in 2025 has created additional underlying risk in the market, alongside all the global uncertainties that are plaguing trade.
Bullish market sentiment on the broader outlook for the beef industry, coupled with reduction in availability of feeders and higher feedlot demand to cover forward positions on fed cattle is contributing.
Bids and offers across the forward curve out to the end of 2025 are now above $4.00kg lwt – reflecting the value of Queensland crossbred feeder steers delivered into the Darling Downs region (300km radius of Dalby).
A risk mitigation tool acts as protection against unfavourable movements in the price if markets were to fall between today and the month that cattle are sold.
MLA’s latest BPIS report indicates that producers sold 46% less cattle than expected in the first half of 2025.
The scale of the reduced sales numbers was most acute in Queensland, driven by strong seasonal conditions supporting retention and a bullish outlook on the market.
In line with the spot market rising, the StoneX Feeder Cattle swap bids and offers that inform its forward curve out 12 months have also strengthened.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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