Cattle markets have begun 2026 in similar fashion to how 2025 ended now that regular trading has recommenced.
The major talking point of the market currently is the strength of the central and north western Queensland seasonal conditions for those that haven’t been adversely affected by the Gulf flooding. Evidence of this is continued strength in light backgrounder cattle prices across major southern QLD saleyard centres and the weekly AuctionsPlus Weaner & Yearling sales.
Feeder cattle on the other hand are holding firm, despite the uncertainty brought about by China’s announcement for out of quota beef being hit with a 55% tariff. It is likely that non Hormone Growth Promotant (HGP) free cattle will be given an implant and rediverted to shorter fed programs to open up greater market access as well as secure known production performance of the cattle in the feedlot (HGP free cattle don’t perform as well as treated stock).
This adjustment made by feedlots should see traditional mid and longer fed Angus cattle pushed into shortfed HGP treated programs, knowing that by the time cattle are fed and processed, the China quota of 205,000 metric tons will likely have been hit.
Remembering that in 2025, China accounted for 33% of Australia’s total grainfed exports for the calendar year, and as a proportion of its total exports from Australia, reached 54%. Making China our largest grainfed beef export market.
Slaughter cattle have eased this week, driven in part by intense competition and sharply lower offer prices for manufacturing beef from competitor, Brazil into the US which had pressured imported trim prices up until last week. That influence is now flowing through to slaughter cattle prices here in Australia. On the other hand, most export beef processors are utilising grainfed cattle as is traditional through January of each year due to lower supply of grassfed stock, somewhat diluting a true market picture.
Overall though, until Australia Day passes next week, we won’t have a clear view of the market until it returns to normal scheduling and operations in February and school holidays end.
To open 2026, the StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap is seeing solid participation across both buy and sell side, with selling interest extending into the middle of 2026 at similar rates to current grid prices for crossbred feeder cattle delivered Dalby. Those values are offered $5.00 - $5.10/kg lwt into June 2026.
Uncertainty remains across the marketplace for both buyers and sellers, and with that, the StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap, provides users a potential solution to deal with this market uncertainty and better manage price risk into the future.
Recent rains across Australia’s major cattle regions in Queensland is driving solid support for light cattle prices.
China’s out of quota tariff announcement is driving a shift in plans for feeder cattle programs in 2026
The StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap is seeing robust interest in bids and offers into the middle of 2026.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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