Australian cattle slaughter is expected to hit its highest level since 1978 in 2026, having already hit that mark for the 2025-26 financial year.
Female cattle slaughter was at a record high in the June quarter, and all three eastern states set new quarterly beef production records. Queensland, specifically, which had 43% of the national cattle slaughter in the June quarter, has been leading the way when it comes to supply this year. With many parts of the state now experiencing drier than hoped seasonal conditions, the question is how much supply is left to come?
National weekly cattle yardings are currently averaging about 2% higher year-on-year, sitting above 72,000 head. This surpasses the five-year-average by about 20,000 head a week - or 27%. Comparatively, Queensland yardings are so far 7% above the 2025 average, but sitting slightly closer to the short-term average, just 18% higher. If we look at year-to-date totals, QLD is currently 10% above last year. So, while QLD is more closely following the five-year trend than the national yardings, year-on-year it has been seeing additional supply so far this year.
The five-year-average shows that weekly QLD yardings historically are lower for the remainder of the year than they have been up to last week, but last year that was not the case, with the weekly yarding average in QLD actually increasing by 10% for the final 10 weeks of the year - which is what we have left. However, given the extent of turn-off so far this year, and the deteriorating season seeing young cattle in that state fall by 84c/kg in the past month, one would think turn-off will be more closely aligned with the short-term average than year-on-year.
What is likely to continue is the feeder cattle demand coming out of QLD, despite that price point also dropping significantly in the past month to its second-lowest level since May. The latest lotfeeding data out of the Australian Lotfeeders Association’s quarterly brief is that the QLD feedlot sector, which encompasses 55% of the national cattle on feed, remained stable when it came to capacity last quarter, but increased the numbers on feed by 4.5%, to see utilisation hit 98%. As fed cattle days are now within range of a 2027 turn-off, when current full export beef market quotas will renew, it is unlikely the foot will come off the pedal when it comes to keeping the feed pens full - if they can find the cattle.
Looking at QLD slaughter briefly, and year-on-year it's similar to yardings, sitting 5% higher when it comes to the weekly average, but further in front of the average at 28%. Year-to-date total QLD slaughter is just shy of 4% higher year-on-year, and last year the average kill did increase between now and the end of the year, which means technically the capacity is there for throughput to continue at the current rate.
If we look at the past three months of the year in isolation, there have been instances, namely last year, that QLD cattle supply could continue at the strength it has seen for most of the year. However, looking at what has already been turned off this year, along with seasonal conditions, most reports indicate supply is more likely to dry up from here on out, which could put further downward pressure on local markets; however, based on quality, it might see feeders head south for stock, buoying that demand.
Queensland supply is trending above both year-on-year and short-term average levels so far this year, as Australia set to see slaughter for the current cycle peak.
Last year, QLD yardings increased further for the last 10 weeks of the year – however, historically they will fall away.
Total cattle slaughter is forecast to rise about 3% year-on-year in 2026, with QLD already sitting 4% higher.