The second edition of “Paddock Wisdom” registered a decline in the number of responses, at just shy of 600 for the seven days. However, even with the reduced overall responses to the survey (compared with survey 1) there was an increased direct interaction from AuctionsPlus clients with the AuctionsPlus Market Insights team - discussing and providing further insight into the outlook for the market.
The results are as below:
|
AuctionsPlus MarketPulse – First Cross Ewe Lamb Price Outlook Using the weekly AuctionsPlus average first cross ewe lamb price, at $270/head, (18 June 2021) where do YOU think this price will be in the third week of December 2021. A. $283.5/head (increase of 5% or greater) – 34.6% B. $256.5 – $283.4/head (+/-5%) – 30.6% C. $243 – $256.4/head (decline of 5-10%) – 17.9% D. $202.5 - $242.9 (decline of 10-25%) – 8.1% E. Below $202.5 (decline of 25% or greater) – 8.8% Background: Since 2010, the change in the benchmark lamb indicator from mid-June to |
Summary: The buoyancy around livestock prices into the second half of the year appears to not just be limited to the cattle market, with the responses for Paddock Wisdom – Survey 2, pointing to a very optimistic market outlook. As per the background notes provided with the question, the seasonality of the Australian lamb market has a large impact on annual pricing – with this considered with the five options presented.
With 34.6% of respondents replying that the first cross ewe lamb price will be at least greater than $283.5/head (or greater than 5%) come mid-December, the optimism within the industry is robust. Interestingly, this compares to only 19.8% for almost the same question asked of the young steer price two weeks earlier. Initial analysis of the two results point to a lamb industry and prices that have more of an upside to increase through to December – compared to the highly advertised record run of the EYCI.
If the 34.6% of respondents are right, this would put the AuctionsPlus first cross ewe lamb price at least 30% above the corresponding period in 2020 and 57% above the December average for the past five years (2016 – 2020). As per chart 2 below, the consistent growth in the first cross ewe price has been underpinned by the constant demand for Australian lamb in key markets and boosted by the recent seasonal conditions and restocking intentions.
Annually, the number of first cross ewe lambs being traded through AuctionsPlus has increased significantly since the breaking of the drought. So far in 2021, 138,426 head have been offered, which is on track to challenge the 290,687 head transacted through 2020. Assisting the growth in the past eighteen months has been the excellent seasonal conditions, which has enabled producers the flexibility to market online, as compared to the drought forced saleyard turnoff through 2018 and 2019.