Last week, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) released the results of the July 2026 report, for its Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS).
This survey represents a short “sense check” on how grassfed beef producers herd intentions, numbers of calves born in Autumn calving herds and sales numbers have adjusted from responses provided in the April 2026 full survey wave.
The major takeaways from the July report was the downward revision in number of cattle sold in the first half of 2026 (January 1 – June 30) for grassfed producers across the country.
This amounted to a reduction of 9% or 460,000 head less sold than expected when compared to responses in April 2026. Despite that reduction, year-on-year, actual sales numbers increased 17% or 700,000 in H1 2026 compared to the same period last year.
Why this matters, is that the numbers are reflective and aligned with broader signals across other measurable parts of the industry, for example grainfed cattle turnoff was up 20% YoY and adult cattle slaughter was higher by 8%. All metrics which align with a general lift in transactions, acknowledging that the lift of 17% reported by producers will also include paddock sales and store cattle (restocker types) sold.
Figure 1 below breaks down the previous three years of July actual results for both sales in the first half of the year and the Autumn calf crop.
From an Autumn calf drop perspective, numbers were stable compared to April responses, with 2.43 million calves born between January 1 and June 30 of 2026 and were in line with 2025.
What is interesting though, is that there are more breeders and potentially more supply available in Victoria than the market realises. Comparing the Autumn calf drops in Victoria between 2025 and 2026, there is a difference of 30,000 less calves on the ground across the two periods.
Despite the region being challenged by drought conditions through 2024 and 2025, which in theory would mean a liquidation of the cow herd.
Now the estimated calf drop doesn’t automatically translate to calves weaned, but the data suggests there are more calves having been born this Autumn than I suspect the market realised. That is important, because for that state, into next year, those calves will come to market as feeder cattle in larger numbers when they reach saleable weights.
Despite overall sales numbers being down from producers’ initial estimates in April, the results reaffirm the rush of supply seen in the first half of 2026. Particularly when measured against actual sale numbers from the same BPIS report in 2025 and the growth seen year-on-year.
In addition to that, with less numbers sold than initially expected, that could also translate to more cattle being marketed than the market suspected as they reach saleable weights.
This drawdown in numbers, will in time, ultimately will play a role in availability of sale cattle in localized regions, namely feeders and processor cows. I am of the view this is particularly relevant for the Winter of 2027 and availability of Bos Taurus feeder cattle at a traditionally challenging time of the year to source these types.
From an Autumn calving perspective – seemingly Victoria and South Australia are in fact performing better with calf numbers than anecdotes suggest. Coupled with the favourable seasonal conditions these regions have experienced in 2026, expect to see solid numbers of feeder cattle marketed into Autumn of 2027 which are these autumn drop calves from this year.
And couple those numbers of larger than expected calf crops, with out of region sourced weaner cattle, and this should translate into active buying participation from northern NSW and southern Queensland feedlots in southern Australia over the next few months sourcing Bos Taurus feeders.
Beef producers sold less cattle than expected in the first half of 2026, but first half volumes remain ahead of previous years for the same time.
Based on producer responses, the Autumn calf drop in southern Australia is firm year on year, suggesting there are more cows in the south than initially thought.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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