Cattle live export numbers showed improvement in April as expected, rising above the five-year-average for the month, but year-to-date numbers are still at one of the lowest points they have sat in at least the past 25 years. Demand from Indonesia, the primary market, ramped up significantly last month, and that destination’s market share for the year so far has also increased, now sitting at 77%. However, while supply is said to be ample once cattle are accessible in the north, headwinds remain, with slaughter cattle price caps in Indonesia and the rising price of fuel likely to start to flow through.
Figures first, and total live cattle exports out of Australia rose above the five-year average for the first time this year in April, with the 65,755 head 11% more than the short-term figure. April exports were still 20% below the same month in 2025 though and only brought year-to-date total exported cattle numbers to just shy of 160,000 head. Comparatively, at the same time last year there were nearly 206,00 head already exported. If we look back over the past 10 years, the lowest year-to-date number was 2022 (164,000) and that year-end figure was 44% below the longer-term average.
Market specifically, Indonesia remains the main destination for live cattle. In April, they imported 14% less cattle than the same month last year, but 24% more than the five-year-average for April. This is reflected in the year-to-date numbers, lower year-on-year, but still above the average, albeit by only 1%. Year-to-date numbers were also lower in 2022 as above (and 2023), the difference being the market share - Indonesian market share of Australia’s live cattle export trade for January to April in 2022 was 60%, compared to 77% this year - leaving little room for any other market, with the Philippines and ‘Other’ the only two destinations registering over 3%.
A couple of reasons are being slated as behind the slow start. The 2025-26 northern Australian wet season has been ranked as the seventh wettest on record by the Bureau of Meteorology, with rainfall across the entire region 44% above average, which has impacted the ability of cattle to make it to ports. Not only has it delayed annual musters, but damage to roads is said to be widespread, especially in the Northern Territory. The other dampener has been a cap of the price Indonesian lot feeders can receive for slaughter weight cattle, which is reportedly about 40% lower than the cost of Australian feeder cattle so far this year. The cap was put in place to ensure the affordability of beef domestically during the Ramadan festival, but it doesn’t appear to have lifted it as of yet.
The strength of the Indonesian demand in the face of price disparity is positive for the outlook of the trade in the coming months, especially if the price cap is lifted and/or Australian feeder prices dip on the back of more ample supply. While recent historical comparisons show it is difficult to make up the amount of lost ground in terms of numbers after such a slow start, the much-improved seasonal conditions could make a difference. Of course, the unknown currently is the conflict in the Middle East, and how that might impact the cost of trade moving forward as well.