Since mid-March, east coast cattle markets have been battered by the sustained forced turnoff from areas south of the Warrego highway in Queensland through to the Upper Hunter Valley in NSW. This has dragged cattle prices 10-25% lower with cow and restocker cattle markets most affected.
The liquidation of herds through South Queensland and NSW will have a lasting impact on supplies of southern type cattle (Angus and British cross) after herds were similarly downsized across south Australia, Victoria and South NSW over the past two to three years.
On a rough estimate, the southern breeding herd could have been reduced by 20-30% over the past few years. This will constrain the supply of southern feeder and slaughter weight cattle for at least the next two years.
New England weaner cattle have gone far and wide either on agistment or to restockers and will most likely not be seen again until later in the year, leaving a hole in supplies of suitable southern feeder and slaughter cattle over the next six months.
NSW cattle markets began to firm at the start of last week after northern yardings eased by around one-third and by Thursday’s prices had gained 20-30c/kg with the offering at Dubbo down by 4,000 head to just over 7,000 head.
Our agents report that the southern turnoff is almost exhausted and will be all but done over the next two weeks. The market has transitioned to tight supplies and firmer prices in the south, while in the north supplies are now rising seasonally and prices are across northern markets from Darwin to the Downs.
This chart shows Queensland and Victorian saleyard feeder steer values. Source: MLA
Indo feeder cattle were back another 20c/kg and are just holding at $4/kg Darwin. A large boat order of 14,000 ex Darwin was topped up with cattle from the WA Kimberley and from Queensland last week.
An export boat order was recently switched from Darwin to Broome on the promise of $3.60/kg steers, illustrating the competitive nature of the trade between northern Australian ports. In Townsville, a mixed grade shipment of non-brahman cattle is being put together at $3.45/kg for steers - these cattle are usually 40c/kg discount to Brahmans. This price now looking OK for secondary grade cattle in the north, given recent saleyard price movements.
Exporters advise they are working out which port offers the most advantage Townsville or Darwin in the weeks ahead with the decision based on the differential between sea freight and road freight. Both ports look to have a ready supply of cattle available for export as the northern season gets into full swing.
The Queensland cow market also came back around 20c/kg for northern type cows with the expectation that southern buyers will need to focus on Queensland for weight as NSW supply tightens seasonally.
The southern Queensland feeder steer market is back to $4.50c/kg for flatbacks into the Downs, back from $4.70c/kg a fortnight ago. Expect feedlotters to turn back towards Central Queensland feeders after having been well supplied out of South Queensland and North NSW for the past couple of months.
As mentioned, NSW cattle supplies are over the hump and will now taper into winter with some rain across central and South NSW expected to tighten supplies further. It has rained in areas that have already received a start and will give fodder crops and pastures a much-needed kick along before the cold arrives. There are still plenty of store cattle for sale and some good buying opportunities right through NSW, but the big numbers are winding down.
In Victoria, there was 7-15mm in western Victoria around Casterton and more, further east with up to 20-25mm in central Victoria and up to 40mm through parts of north-east Victoria and the NSW Riverina.
This will get the croppers going and will generate some late autumn pasture growth that will be very well received.
The forecast rain seemed to give the Victorian store market a push along last week. But numbers are starting to taper with anyone with stock to sell having offloaded in the last couple of weeks or looking to sell the tail in the next couple of weeks, after which stock availability will get very tight.
In South Australia, the focus in the north has been pastoral areas where the season is exceptional, from the northwest part of South Australia right up through the centre to the eastern side of Broken Hill.
Normally at this time of year, we lean on these pastoral areas for supply but this year there is a swag of stock moving into these areas with some on agistment and others to restockers, mainly cattle.
In south-east SA, cattle prices have firmed as available supplies of suitable weight feeder and slaughter stock tighten. Cows still in the high $3/kg with light and feeder heifers the highlight of markets and starting to attract a bit more attention than the equivalent steers, given the widening of the heifer discount over recent weeks.
Down in Tasmania, they are into the teeth of their annual cow cull which has placed downward pressure on the local market. Cows over the hooks are around $7/kg dw, back 20-30c/kg with $3.60/kg available for a better cow in the yards. Program cattle are $8.20 to $8.30/kg dw, back from $8.70c/kg dw a month ago.
Like in most southern markets, the majority of turnoff is done and dusted with only the tail left. Recent good rain of 10-35mm across the north and mild temperatures may entice a few more restockers back to the market. Soil temperatures remain unseasonally warm which has raised the prospect of some late autumn pasture growth. After snow and sleet a few weeks back, daytime maximum temperatures reached 27.5 degrees in Hobart the highest recorded May temperature in the 139 years that records have been kept.
It remains very dry through the south coast and south-east which needs a real good drink. Most stock have already been moved out of these areas due to the lack of groundwater.
In WA, prices remain firm with numbers tightening seasonally across southern WA with only stock from some of the corporate farms that calve later now coming onto the market.
Slaughter and feeder steers from $4.90 to $5.50/kg, and feeder heifers from $4.40 to $4.90/kg. Better cows in the yards from $3.80 to $3.90/kg while bulls are making $3.50 to $3.60/kg, the equivalent of or better than east coast prices.
The Kimberly season is up and running finally with a few boats starting to move and their tendering process underway with some cattle already booked into southern WA processors.
Attention is turning to Spring bookings with cattle needing locked in by end of May, early June. Bookings will be crucial this year since north of Geraldton, up into the Gascoyne region, the season is late. With good rain in the past month, they will now hold onto cattle through winter. These cattle, especially cows, will end up coming down for slaughter in the Spring and run into the start of the southern turnoff.
Beef exports so far this year have been ripping along at +16% driven by exports to China (+36%) and Korea (+23%) as exporters rush to get product in before safeguard quotas are filled and tariffs of 55% and 24% are triggered into China and Korea, respectively. On current pace we will fill safeguard quotas around the end of July. Allowing a month for processing and shipping, this means that buying from these destinations could begin to slow by end of June.
Last month we exported a combined 51,000 tonnes of beef to China and Korea or just over one-third of all exports. With tariffs expected to slow beef import demand from these destinations we will need to find alternative markets. Although most of our export markets could take some more beef, the main volume outlet is north America which will make Australian exporters very reliant on the US over the second half of 2026.
There are signs that robust US beef demand is waning as higher fuel prices crimp shopping budgets and rising beef costs push US consumers to other proteins. Tyson Foods a US major food company released its latest quarterly results overnight, noting that rising chicken sales helped counter a sharp drop in demand for high-priced beef. Protein-hungry but cash-strapped consumers have shifted toward buying more affordable types of meat, such as chicken and pork. Tyson said beef prices climbed 11.5% during the quarter while sales volumes sank 13.1%.
This chart shows Tyson Foods beef price and sales volumes change by quarter. Source: Reuters
Some Australian exporters are pulling cattle off feed early at 120 days rather than the normal medium fed program of 150 days to ensure beef gets into China head of restrictions. Feedlot buying for the Chinese market won’t resume until September. Some feedlots are likely to pivot towards a 60-day feeder heifer program aimed at the domestic market. This may explain why we have seen a little more interest in feeder heifers recently.
Elders Business Intelligence Analyst Richard Koch combines a deep understanding of global market dynamics with regular insights from Elders staff on the ground, providing informed analysis shaped by both data and real-world observations.