Historically, the first week of spring sees a surge of new season lamb listings, with weekly sheep and lamb offerings surging towards the six-figure mark by mid-October. However, like almost everything in 2022, the traditional trend seems to be disrupted, despite the favourable joining conditions and increased flock numbers currently on farm. As weekly commercial sheep and lamb listings in the last two weeks of August have started to show signs of what is to come in Spring, numbers continue to track 4-6 weeks behind the “normal curve”, frustrated by the wet and dull winter growing conditions.
Looking at weekly commercial listings since the start of winter, the final two weeks of August started to see both supplies and clearance levels rise, with clearance rates returning to levels seen in early June (figure 1). The first week of spring is set to see the upward trend in listings continue with a combined total of 66,906 head listed in the Tuesday National Lamb and Tuesday National Sheep Sales up 33% on last weeks offering.
The increase in listings over the last two weeks has been aided by the spike in National Lamb Sale listings, as new season lambs begin to filter onto the box – an indication of what is expected to come. The last week of August saw lamb listings in the National Lamb sale account for 61% of the overall weekly offering, with tomorrows lamb sale seeing the 42,860 head total more than the combined offering since 2nd August.
As discussed above, sheep and lamb listings have been stagnant and unseasonably low throughout July and August, as the impacts of a wet and cold winter impacted growth rates. Aided by cautious producers not in a rush to sell stock due to adequate feed supplies and mixed prices, reports are indicating that the new season lamb surge is between four and six weeks behind schedule. As seen in figure 3, listings this year are at levels reached six weeks earlier in 2021, indicating that the influx of new season lambs are currently six weeks behind, with the current week 80% down on the same week last year - albeit a strong rally from the lulls of early August.
The six-week listing delay will see lamb listings on a rapid rise in the coming weeks of September, as spring warmth and longer days rebound the market and buyer confidence. If seasonal constraints continue to impact finishing and selling priorities, the bulk of the offerings could easily be pushed into early summer, given that the highest weekly numbers in 2021 registered through November.