StoneX has released its H2 2026 Australian Cattle & Beef Market Outlook, which discusses the key trends, drivers and forecasts set to shape the beef industry to the end of 2026. In addition, key opportunities and challenges for the sector are highlighted, as well as the outlook for prices and supply for the next six months.
Broadly, there were three main themes of the report which are worth acknowledging;
As Figure 1 below indicates, the outlook at a production level for most key metrics for the beef industry is a continuation of the four-year theme of growth and rising output from the sector.
The herd forecast was realistically the most challenging to put together, as liquidation through central eastern Australia in early 2026 competes with sustained herd growth out of northern Australia.
At the production level, the slaughter forecast of 9.85 million head would be the third highest level since records began in 1972 if reached, only surpassed by the years 1977 and 1978. With grainfed turnoff again forecast to lift in 2026 to a new record of 3.9 million head, that result coupled with favourable seasonal conditions, particularly in northern Australia will drive heavier grassfed turnoff weights. The overall outcome is carcase weights remaining firm on 2025’s results.
Beef production is forecast to surpass 3 million metric tons for the first time, driven by stable to slightly higher carcase weights and near 50-year highs in slaughter. On the back of this, beef exports are forecast to reach 1.75 million head, continuing a four-year cycle of higher exports year on year, the first time this has happened since the previous 2011-15 cycle.
Live exports, driven by challenging macroeconomic factors, such as the weak Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate against the USD and government policy in Indonesia itself aiming to assist consumers with the cost of living, has meant that live exports have been revised lower to 700,000 head for 2026.
The outlook for supply in the second half of this year is strong, in both northern and southern production systems, volume of cattle made available, particularly feeders and slaughter stock will be high.
There is potential to see the large numbers of weaners sold out of northern NSW and Southern Queensland in early 2026 re-enter the market as feeders from the south, west and north of those locations, simply having changed postcodes.
While at a slaughter level, the retention of sale cattle on property, to utilise the excellent wet season of 2025/26 will likely bring big numbers of grassfed kill cattle forwards to close out 2026, more supply than usual.
If seasonal conditions improve in the key period of Spring for those regions that need it through central eastern Australia – supply of light cattle and breeding stock could become short as producers choose to retain to increase numbers on farm and utilise available grass – creating intense competition for restocker type articles.
Domestically, the outlook for prices remains sound with the fundamentals of supply and demand and a somewhat favourable long-range weather forecast to the end of the year supporting this.
The second half of 2026 and into 2027 will be defined by multiple drivers of the market colliding at once, being strong domestic fundamentals against challenging global macro headwinds. Meaning from a pricing perspective for slaughter and feeder cattle, the outlook is one of the most uncertain it has been in some time.
An important reminder, that even if prices were to decline through H2 2026, they are coming off Decile 9 and 10 levels, meaning that historically they are very strong. Which if an easing were to occur, would mean prices would remain in the top deciles of historical performance.
At a restocker level, weather will continue to dictate seasonal conditions and subsequently producer demand – if seasonal conditions improve in Spring – demand for light cattle will be very strong as producer compete to secure supply to utilise available grass and rebuild numbers.
Domestically, the positioning of the market from a price perspective and its outlook for prices remains sound, with solid local fundamentals supporting this.
Large slaughter volumes and subsequently beef production and exports may occur in 2026, driven by high carcase weights and big supply of sale cattle.
If any herd rebuilding is to begin in 2026, it will be extremely region specific, not a nation wide rebuild.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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