Last week, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) released the November 2025 Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS), providing detailed insights into producer decision making, sales plans, herd growth or liquidation intentions and overall sentiment.
The survey covers producers of all scales, locations and states and is a highly valuable resource that provides detailed insight into the thinking of the Australian grassfed beef producer at the coalface.
A section of the survey looks at sales channels and intentions, both sold cattle and forward looking intentions on numbers. This creates a picture of expected supply volumes the marketplace may see as we begin 2026.
Looking back, cow/calf producers noted that they had sold more cattle in the second half of 2025 (July 1 – December 31) than they had during the same period in 2024. In actual volumes, this amounted to 140,000 head extra than 2024 or a rise of 3%.
Impressively, for backgrounders and traders in the second half 2025, they sold 33% or 780,000 head more than the same period in 2024. The data can’t be broken down at a state level, but considering the exceptional seasonal conditions northern NSW and Queensland experienced through most of 2025, it would be nearly a guarantee to see bigger numbers flowing out of those regions who capitalised on favourable seasonal and market conditions and traded stock in 2025.
Supporting anecdotal conversations had with the market, a price rally and generally above average seasonal conditions supporting improved weight gain performance is likely to have driven this higher-than-expected turnoff.
Looking forwards, both cow/calf and backgrounder or trading producers noted that they expected sales volumes in the first half of 2026 to remain relatively firm on year ago levels.
Of note was the reduction of 3% or 85,000 head less cattle expected to be sold out of backgrounding or trading businesses – which supports the above analysis that producers sold cattle earlier to capitalize on a strong market.
Importantly, the survey also examines the chosen sales channels of producers. The Tasmanian producers at a state level were the highest users of online selling channels relative to the other states, accounting for 15% of total sales volumes.
At a producer scale level, the larger producers (top 50% by levies paid) had a strong preference to include online sales in their selling mix more so than smaller operators – indicating their preference for a diverse mix of market channels.
The sales numbers data indicates that large numbers of stock were sold across the second half of 2025, particularly when comparing this seasonally to the 2024 levels. That tells you saleable cattle numbers are continuing to build over time, further supporting evidence of overall cattle herd growth in 2025.
While looking forwards a continuation of relatively stable numbers sold in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025 indicates strong availability of stock. In real time, drought pressure impacting feed and water availability may further exacerbate forced turnoff and higher supply on top of already larger than usual numbers. It remains critically important to understand such trends and apply broader macro insights into your own business to assist with decision making.
The StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap has begun 2026 with active participation and trades booked for backgrounders, breeders and feedlots. Market interest extends into the middle of 2026, with prices reflecting a softer market than where current spot feeder prices are transacting on the Darling Downs.
Nearby markets remain the most actively engaged and spreads on bid and offers reflect this. Open Interest continues to steadily build, particularly in the front month contracts (<4 months from today). On price movements, stronger supply has continued to limit upside, but the general market consensus is that it is only one rain event away from a strong rally.
Backgrounders in the second half of 2025 sold780,000 head more than the same period in 2024 – likely driven by the major regions of northern NSW and Queensland.
Larger scale producers and those located in Tasmania have shown a stronger preference to include online selling in their sales channels mix.
The StoneX Feeder Cattle Swap trading activity continues to build, with nearby contracts seeing most activity – with forward prices trading in a tight range either side of spot prices.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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