In this column in July, the StoneX H2 2025 Australian Cattle & Beef Market Outlook’s bold calls were analysed and assessed for what the final 6 months of the year held for the beef industry.
In Figure 1 below, a scorecard identifies how my forecasts for the year held relative to the H2 reports results. And like any forecast, there’s the good, the bad and the ugly!
On the local supply side here in Australia, slaughter and grainfed turnoff have either been at records or at least the strongest in nearly 50 years.
The forecast I held for slaughter to hit its highest level since 1978 across the calendar year and grainfed turnoff, nationally, to rise above 3.25m head look on track. I may have slightly overstated slaughter volumes, due to a weaker than expected Q4 throughput, driven by disruptive Spring/Summer rains slowing supply.
Let's take those forecasts as a pass mark.
On the export front, I forecast monthly export volumes to be broken at least twice and for US beef exports to surpass their 2015 record of 414,220 metric tonnes.
The above forecasts I made in July have well and truly been surpassed – both of which are a product of the exceptionally strong production volumes the beef supply chain.
Again, solid passes.
Where things come unstuck is my pricing forecast for the market to reach its peak in late July, before softer pricing to end the year, with dry weather a factor.
The market, from July has continued to rally right into the end of November where it reached its peak for the year. Prices in that final week of the month generally reached their highest levels since 2022.
Whilst the weather through September and October across the broader east did in fact dry out quickly and that dryness is continuing to be felt across parts of NSW and Queensland. And prices as a result of this, did decline through this period,
Ultimately, the underlying demand interest and break in the season in mid to late October supported renewed interest for cattle across all parts of the value chain, affecting supply and marketing of cattle, which in turn placed upward pressure on pricing.
A factor I underestimated was the influence of southern feedlot buyers willingness to purchase Queensland feeder cattle and truck into southern markets. That support from the south, across not only Angus and British cross, but also flatback types drove additional competition in the feedlot space and forced its prices higher, despite profitability challenges at times on cattle for the feedyards. Whilst the overall expansion of feedlots generally has driven higher demand overall, colliding with southern feedlots chasing cattle due to a lack of their own local supply.
Whilst in the restocker space, the year Queensland has had with its rainfall and above average season, meant that once falls returned in late October, renewed interest in cattle immediately forced prices higher.
For slaughter stock, overall supply was ample, but again like feeders, the influence the southern processors had on buying northern cattle to kill cannot be understated.
Though I was wrong, the market proved to me that local supply and demand and the influence of the weather, continue to dominate cattle prices in this country.
The year 2025 for the Australian cattle industry can be celebrated as an exceptionally positive one. Not without its challenges, droughts, fires and flooding rains have all been influential at different times, yet the industry has pushed forwards.
We’ve produced record volumes of beef and overall cattle supply has been strong yet markets have continued to rise. While the consumer, locally and across the world, continues to show interest for our product – the combination of all of these factors tell you how strong a year the industry has had.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
StoneX Disclaimer The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.