From processors having kill schedules booked out months ahead and feedlots struggling to find space, in a matter of weeks, the industry is now struggling to find cattle and lifting rates to encourage sales.
The tightening in supply across the south was predictable, but I’ve got to say I’m surprised that northern supplies have tightened with CQ works rates expected to rise to narrow the gap between those in the south. Southern Queensland over the hook rates have also lifted 20c/kg under pressure from southern processors who have moved up from northern NSW to find suitable slaughter cattle to fill their seasonal supply gap over winter.
There are a couple of reasons for the slowing in supply out of QLD:
This chart show the difference in saleyard average prices in QLD between heavy steers (bullocks) and feeder cattle. Source: MLA
Feeder rates have also moved 10-20c/kg higher with feedlots looking to fill pens, encouraged by a change in the cropping season outlook which has brought grain prices back from peaks of near $450/tonne. The feeling is that end users aren’t well covered past July, but they are prepared to wait and see what the weather brings, with the market probably heading back towards $400/t Downs with plantings now likely at least through parts of nth NSW.
My mate in Moree reckons he’ll need >75mm from the forecast rain to dust off the seeder and consider planting.
What does all this mean? The northern cattle haven’t disappeared and are still there and will come at some stage, but QLD producers are in a comfortable position cash and feed wise to strategically manage their sales.
Most of the live export focus is out of Darwin and the Kimberley. With prices coming back from $4/ kg to $3.80/kg Darwin on a Brahman feeder steer into Indo.
Two key factors are at work, Firstly, for the next six weeks exporters are concentrating on shipping cattle that have already been bought under contract. So, there have not really been many new deals written in the past few weeks just little top up jobs.
Secondly, the Indo currency is having a major impact with it approaching levels that it hit in the Asian economic crisis at 17,700 rupiah to a $US which has thrown the market into a spin.
Cattle are landing in Indo 50c/kg dearer in $US than last year but in Rupiah terms they are through the roof. Unusually the Indonesian Governments outs a price cap on beef through the culturally sensitive festival months (Ramadan and Lebaran), and they would lift it soon after. But this year they've kept it on and It's limiting the ability for feedlotters and importers to turn a profit which has cooled things off a little.
That said, domestic demand in Indonesia is pretty good and cattle are selling and they want to buy, but they're just very nervous about the whether they can turn a dollar.
In Townsville, where the live export space is quiet (they are getting cheaper cattle out of Darwin and Broome) the local feedlots are stepping up. Brahman feeder heifers, 350kgs, local delivery are making $3.50/kg which is good money in the north for a Brahman heifer and $3.70 to $3.80/kg and even touching $4.00 for a Brahman steer.
Fat cattle grids moved up 20c/kg dw again this week in Rocky to close the gap to sth QLD works which had moved out to 40c/kg dw over the past month, although sth QLD grids also rose 20c/kg dw rise further too but the difference has narrowed to 20c/kg dw which is more normal.
CQ feeders are starting to climb again. There are $4.80/kg to $4.90/kg, particularly on bigger mobs. There's a plus 5-10c/kg if you're over 12 decks with a few of the feedlots. $5.30c/kg on blacks and plus 10 on EU. So that market up another 10c/kg this week.
The CQ weaner market is taking off which is timely because the CQ weaner sales start next Monday. With the first ones in Rocky and then in Emerald the following week. They'll be 4000-6000 heavy and fancy weaners for sale, but they'll carry a price tag of $5.50-$5.70c/kg, which is 50c/kg better than a fortnight ago.
Heifers are still viable if you're game enough to play in that field. They're very hard to make money out of, but at these prices, it's a no-brainer. There's got to be money there, particularly if they spay them.
What’s driving the job? Tax mate, nobody wants to sell till July. They are cashed up and got feed and are in no hurry to sell.
Part of the recovery in QLD grids is related to the slowdown in killing for China where they were pulling forward cattle from 150 days to 120-130 days to ensure they beat the China quota which is tipped to fill next month.
With the weather changing for the better, the few numbers available in nth NSW have dried up. The southern processors will push hard into Queensland over the next three to five months.
At the back end of last week, Elders agents fielded lots of phone calls from some of the bigger players in the south, wanting to find lines of cattle and cows to kill for the end of this week. They have been a very strong presence in Northern New South Wales and have been able to secure what they needed out of Northern New South Wales, but they'll be ramping up hard up in QLD now. It is probably going to be the best QLD producers have had it for a while with competition from the south.
On Angus feeders there is a bit of $5.50/kg being quoted so that’s up 20c/kg on last week and it’s probably worth having a chat to see how desperately they want them. The heifer feeder job has lifted $1/kg in a fortnight with plenty of feeder heifers, $5/kg now and getting quoted $5/kg on farm and more if they're EU.
One of the major supermarkets have lifted their grid about 40 or 50c/kg to $9.40-$9.60/kg dw for their premium lines and that could move, higher especially as we come into the winter.
This chart shows the difference in prices between feeder steers and heifers. Source: MLA
In Victoria, there’s been a couple of frosts in the last couple of weeks, so that's going to slow growth up quickly with the real winter phase starting to make its presence felt …. 1-3mm every day which does bugger all other than make it cold, wet and miserable - with not enough to get creeks running or fill dams which we desperately need.
On the cattle front. the biggest move that we've had in the past few weeks is feeder heifers. They're making $5 and better. And the feeder steers are mid-fives, and they're getting dearer every week in the last sort of two weeks.
What’s driving the heifer market? Probably not the domestic trade, just due to the general shortage of feeders. Southern feedlots realise that they're not going to be there in the north, and they want to get them wherever they can.
Southeast South Australia sort of missed the rain across the weekend, at least much of the lower and mid-southeast. Upper southeast got 5-10mm. But really, that's not critically important at this stage as we step into winter.
Unlike in central Vic, we've had quite a mild kind of lead into winter. Still getting a bit of sunshine and haven't had too many frosts. Getting a little bit of rain but not huge amounts so it's almost like a second spring down here.
A lot of our clients have capitalised by buying a few cattle out of Vic and the cattle look all the better for the mild weather.
But we will need to get wet here before long, or the spring will be looking doubtful. But certainly, the country looks magnificent around the lower southeast, mid-southeast now.
Processing rates across Tassie have been steady for a few weeks now, the store job is ticking away ok, probably back 20-30c/kg off our season high but this market could kick hard as supply tightens up with good rains expected in the drier areas over the next few days.
I’m hearing conflicting reports from the overall vibe from the SIAL trade show in China. Industry sources such as MLA are reporting good attendances as industry events whilst some exporters are citing tough negotiations. As I have mentioned what happens when the China quota restrictions hit will have a major bearing ion cattle market in Q3 2026.
Here are some unbiased comments from a trusted industry source who was on the ground.
Overall, the turnout was lighter compared to previous years - with attendees citing weak domestic Chinese market conditions, high stocks, and tight cashflow as possible reasons
On Brazilian beef exports (by far the most important supplier in market share terms) there was uncertainty over whether sales would trigger the safeguards but most packers sold out mid-June cargoes by show's end - better than expected outcome.
Brazilian plants may reduce production by 10-20% once quota hits to avoid price cliffs in established markets. There are mixed views on when safeguard will trigger with risk-averse bookings staying off higher tariffs through much lower export volumes. Brazilian cattle prices have begun to ease in anticipation of weaker processor demand of slowing sales into China and once the China safeguard quota is triggered.
Brazilian officials lobbying for leftover quotas and additional quota access. Some Brazilian packers hold up to 1,000 container lots domestically, to capitalise on any change in US beef access. US tariff waiver uncertainty - most expect TRQ duty reduction rather than full waiver.
Australian beef sales were reduced and most discussion focussed on logistics handling, focusing on first-week June airfreight with the 80% quota exhaustion dampening buying sentiment. A mid-June trigger is anticipated +/- 10 days with the market watching closely.
Lamb stands outperformed beef with some reporting 100 container lots sold in last week for smaller players.
Australian officials were busy lobbying for unused quota from other countries to be reallocated and for removing chilled beef and bones from quota calculations arguing that these don’t compete with Chinese domestic product.
New Zealand is in a great safeguard position with good price upside but capped volume with their peak production season starting to wind down.
On US beef regaining entry, it was a hot topic of discussion at SIAL regarding the impact on Australia's grain-fed market share. US offals likely returning soon but dependent on China's market strength and US supply constraints. High US beef prices may dampen Chinese buying appetite. Most are expecting milder return due to need to re-establish client relationships with the lifting of suspension of 38 major US plant suspension crucial for supply improvement.
Word from Japanese participants is that Japanese buyers are buying hand to mouth and holding out for better buying opportunities once Korea and China safeguard quotas are exhausted, leaving Japan the key market to redirect volumes.
Industry players across the region are eyeing next week's five-day Thaifex-Anuga trade event in Bangkok to ramp up sales.
Elders Business Intelligence Analyst Richard Koch combines a deep understanding of global market dynamics with regular insights from Elders staff on the ground, providing informed analysis shaped by both data and real-world observations.