Much of southeastern Australia is taking a break from heavy rain, but that comes with a surge of heat. Gusty winds increase the fire danger early next week - and the week of Christmas may also bring extreme conditions.
We continue to have plenty of moisture pouring into the country, but the weather pattern - where the highs, lows and troughs sit - are ensuring that the heavy rain is confined to eastern Queensland, across the north, and down into the west (again skipping the southwest corner).
This western rain system moves to eastern Australia early next week, but it runs out of oomph with hardly anything falling inland.
Potential rainfall over the next week from Friday 13th to Friday 20th December
Better harvesting conditions are likely to continue about eastern SA, much of NSW and Victoria - but the heat is going to spike.
Saturday (only SA) - Sunday - Monday - Tuesday (only NSW) is the period of concern, with December temperature records to be challenged.
This heat is pushed out of the interior into the southeast on strong and gusty northwest winds ahead of a cold front, creating the perfect conditions for increased fire danger - and that means Total Fire Bans that will interrupt the harvest.
Heatwave conditions are extending through much of eastern Australia (a run of days and nights with significantly above average temperatures)
The cold front ushers in a cool change for coastal SA, and much of VIC and TAS - but it doesn’t really extend any further north or inland, with the heat lingering well into next week.
That means a bubble of heat is ready to surge towards the coast once again as soon as the winds change… and by then we’re in the week of Christmas.
The following guidance shows that, at this early stage, the week of Christmas may have both a lack of rain, and an increase in significant heat, for a large part of eastern Australia.
Potential rain during the week of Christmas - with drier than average conditions likely at this stage in the east
The chance of unusually high temperatures in the week of Christmas map, has a large part of the east with the potential for significant heat
Check the full details at Jane’s Weather to keep up to date on what the models are projecting for your spot. If you’d like an in depth analysis don’t miss my weekly video update - perfect if you have 15 minutes to spare!
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