To make it rain you need moisture and instability, and we have an impressive moisture source that should continue for the rest of the year. The instability is changing though, moving to a new area, set to give the southeast a break from the rain next week.
A lot of warmer than average water has built up just to the north and east of the country.
This provides a significant source of tropical moisture - the fuel for our weather systems. If the weather pattern pushes that moisture to your spot, and low pressure is in the area, this combination can bring heavier than average rain.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) showing much warmer than average waters off the northern and eastern coasts of Australia - providing a significant source of moisture.
The pattern is likely to continue for the rest of the year, and into early January.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) tells us when a pulse of tropical energy is in our zone, encouraging that moisture to push across Australia (the green area).
The pulse is here now, and likely to remain here for several weeks.
The Madden Julian Oscillation tells us where a pulse of tropical energy is located. Currently in the Australian (green) zone and expected to remain there into early next year.
As you would expect that means a large part of the nation is in store for wet weather.
On today’s weekly projection, nearly every part of the country has at least some rain (except the far southwest).
However, this doesn’t highlight the shake up to the weather pattern that is likely over the weekend.
Currently we have high pressure sitting to the east of Australia, pushing moisture across northern and eastern parts. It runs into low pressure and turns into rain.
That high will be replaced by a new one over the Bight across the weekend, as a cold front clears the rain, heat and humidity out of the southeast.
This new pattern puts southeast Australia on the cool side, with much lighter falls and humidity - and some properly dry breaks - lasting through much of next week. If you are harvesting, there could be a window of opportunity for you - and at least a break from the high humidity.
Instead, the humid air, rain and storms continue further north, but also dip down into the west (as that’s the area that is now in the significant rain zone).
It doesn’t quite reach the southwest to produce rain there, but it does give southeastern Australia a break.
Potential rainfall over the next week from Friday 6th to Friday 13th December.
The moisture source remains for the rest of the year - it will just depend on what the weather pattern does (where our highs and lows are placed) to see who gets the significant rain and who misses out.
Check the full details at Jane’s Weather to keep up to date on what the models are projecting for your spot. If you’d like an in depth analysis don’t miss my weekly video update - perfect if you have 15 minutes to spare!
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