Cyclone Alfred is likely to remain well out to sea this weekend and for much of next week, but it may take a turn and impact southeast Queensland, or even northeast NSW.
Cyclone Alfred will be with us for some time, and today’s latest guidance suggests an impact over southeast Queensland (or even northeast NSW) later next week or next weekend.
That is still a long way away to have any confidence in what the guidance is suggesting today.
We look for consistency between the different weather modelling, and a time frame that is only a few days away, before confidence rises in what the actual impact will be.
Today’s guidance has several models suggesting a crossing of the coast (as a cyclone or an ex-cyclone that still packs a lot of rain and wind) between Bundaberg and Brisbane, but that the rain impacts may stretch as far south as Newcastle or even Sydney, and inland as far as Nyngan just west of the ranges.
It is important to note that not all modelling has the cyclone crossing the coast - there is still the chance that no one sees the severe weather as it crosses, or the rain that it can bring to a large area nearby. There is even a model that has the cyclone cross the coast, dump a heap of rain, head back out to sea, then cross the coast a second time.
The guidance is definitely not locked in yet (as you would expect a full week away) but with so many people and farms potentially in the path, it is one to keep up to date with how the modelling progresses as the impact window nears.
BoM’s track map as of Friday afternoon (before it turns around and potentially crosses the coast later next week/next weekend)
If you’d like an in depth analysis of all the different modelling don’t miss my video this week https://youtu.be/tnYqK63uZSg
BoM’s autumn rainfall outlook is out and it’s a very mixed bag across the country.
It’s hard to miss the large areas of brown across much of Queensland. That is thanks to a climate driver known as the MJO projected to remain away from Australia for much of March, suppressing rainfall in our tropics. If the cyclone crosses the coast, that forecast is obsolete, but it should have some weight in your considerations of the season ahead further north.
BoM’s autumn outlook
Much of the rest of the country is a wishy-washy 50-50 kind of outlook, very on the fence with just a little sway to either side.
The drivers that determine this outlook are also 50-50.
The Pacific Ocean is coming out of a La Nina phase and heading into a neutral state for autumn. Potentially heading towards El Nino later in the year.
The Indian Ocean is in a neutral phase for autumn. Potentially heading towards a negative Indian Ocean Dipole in the middle of the year.
The oceans around Australia are all warmer than average, some considerably so.
Collectively, this means:
The Pacific Ocean will stop sending us moisture, but the oceans just to our east can offset that by providing an alternative source
The Indian Ocean may increase the amount of moisture it sends us, particularly mid-year
no matter what the big global drivers do, we have our own source of moisture to offset them
But the golden rule with long range forecasting is: in order to make it rain you need both moisture and instability to work together. We can have all the moisture in the world, but if it doesn’t run into low pressure and get converted into rain, then we don’t see anything.
So, the big question for the season ahead is - will the low pressure pick up some of that moisture and actually push it where it needs to go?
Jane’s Weather provides hyper local weather forecasting based on the consensus of all the weather models, using Machine Learning and AI to calibrate the forecast to conditions at your farm. We include updates on temperature, rain and wind, along with evapotranspiration for efficient water usage, frost risk, growing degree days and a detailed spraying forecast customised for any property in Australia.