Rain is heading for the southeast, letting sodden northeast NSW and southeast Queensland take a break.
Significant rain (and flooding) over northeastern NSW and southeast Queensland is easing on Friday, with the last of it at the coast, no longer with heavy falls. The next weather system is well off the coast and won't be a repeat, and the focus shifts to southeastern Australia next week, bringing a stretch of dry weather (and colder winds later in the period) for the east.
On Friday we have tropical moisture pouring in from the Indian Ocean. That is running into a cold front, which is our equation for rain - moisture plus instability. The problem is, the connection to moisture is weakening, and high pressure is in the way so the cold front slides and the instability weakens. This means that the run of frosty nights and sunny days that graced the southeast this week has ended, but the cloud from the front produces only light and patchy rain.
Satellite and radar on Friday morning - with areas of flooding in NSW.
That feed of moisture isn't done. It'll increase again over the weekend, feeding a big weather system in the southwest on Sunday and Monday. Wet weather continues through much of next week as the next high moves in very slowly.
The situation in the southeast dramatically changes from Tuesday onwards. The next high isn't going to sit over Tasmanian latitudes, but up over northern NSW. That means it has much less of a say in what can move through - it's no longer a blocking feature.
Northeast NSW and southern Queensland take a well-earned break, while the first in a series of fronts arrives in the southeast on Tuesday, with plenty more to follow for the rest of the week. This is enhanced by that feed of moisture - seen on the satellite as a juicy northwest cloudband - and should deliver some nice rain:
Will it last? In short ... no.
The weekly anomaly maps indicate that while the southeast is the flavour of the week in 'week 1' (beginning Monday, August 25), it is not for 'week 2' (beginning Monday, September 1). The focus may return to Queensland/northern NSW and the southwest.
We're now in week four of a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We need to reach eight weeks before BoM declares this year a Negative IOD year.
This will continue to encourage feeds of tropical moisture, but as always it depends on which areas see the low pressure as to which areas get the resulting rain.
We are in a Negative IOD and remain that way for the next month or so.
If you'd like to be guided through all of this and have 14 minutes to spare, please see my latest video:
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