The out of season rainfall in Queensland, mentioned here last Wednesday, has arrived. There is rain crossing the southeast, while the next huge system affects the southwest.. and the next big cold outbreak has appeared on the horizon.
I’ll break the projections down into two time periods - the next four days through to Saturday, then from Sunday to next Wednesday, as the weather pattern changes in between.
FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY
It feels a bit different through much of the eastern states, with the two week cold spell finally over. Moisture has returned to the air in the north, and generally it’s warm!... well, sort of… the string of frosty nights has ended and air temperatures are rising a few degrees - but this comes with a gusty wind in the southeast so it actually feels colder than what it was. There’s always a caveat.
Falls of 25 to 50 mm are likely over central eastern Queensland, as moisture from an onshore airflow meets up with upper atmosphere energy, to create a summer-like trough in the middle of winter. It doesn’t quite extend down into southeast Queensland, or anywhere in the western half.
Meanwhile, a system that peaked in the west of the country is now sliding across the southeast. Thanks to the direction of this movement, and our terrain, you can imagine it to be like a great big ‘belly flop’ as the rain sloshes along the northern slopes of the ranges and northern Tasmania… drying up before reaching the southern side of the ranges and southeastern Tasmania. Southern SA dries up on Thursday, and the rest of the southeast dries up on Friday.
Also, there is a huge system moving across the southwest from today through to Friday. The rain from this is able to extend so far north and so far inland, because this is a ‘cut off’ low with a feed of moisture from the Indian Ocean. These beasts are able to move at a slower pace, cut off from the fast westerly winds to our south, bringing rain to all those in their path.
This arrives in southern SA and the southeast later on Friday and Saturday. Again, this system peaked in the west and it’ll be another belly flop in the southeast, with most of the rain north of the ranges and in northern Tasmania. But.. read on.. as this system isn’t finished with the southeast just yet.
Potential rainfall from Wednesday 26th to Saturday 29th June
FROM SUNDAY TO NEXT WEDNESDAY
A new cut off low is set to actually cross the southeast! High pressure takes a break (for a moment) and lets a low move through.
The path is likely to be across Bass Strait in between Victoria and Tasmania. This ensures southern Victoria and southeastern Tasmania have their turn for rain too. It comes with a proper cold outbreak, so be prepared for that! If you have a ski holiday booked, you’ll be pleased to know that this could be the system that kicks off the snow season properly.
Further north gets some rain from this one too. A cloud and rain band should cross the interior then western Queensland and NSW, increasing as it gets to the western side of the NSW and southeast Queensland ranges.
Meanwhile, cold showers work their way up the east coast, ushering in a new cold spell, while Western Australia takes a few days break.
Potential rainfall from Sunday 27th June to Wednesday 3rd July
Keep up to date with when the rain is likely at your specific spot, by checking the full outlook at Jane’s Weather.