Another relatively quiet week of weather for the nation under the stable influence of the ridging continues into yet another week ahead. The second half of Autumn always expected to drier than the first half of Autumn and that is playing out as expected.There will be a wave of frontal weather that comes into southwest and western districts of WA on Monday with a stronger system mid next week that offers better rainfall chances. Key to watch for those needing rainfall across the WA ag zones, the developing moisture over the Indian Ocean and whether that can be drawn south into the front. Timing is everything.
The lead into ANZAC Day long weekend looks to be on the warming trend for the southern states and eastern Australia. Following a colder and drier airmass surging through the southeast and eastern states, a blocking pattern emerges via a low forming out of that cold air, leading to stagnant weather forecasts for Queensland, NSW/ACT, Victoria through Tasmania and South Australia. A watchpoint this weekend is the risk of frost being widespread in the cropping zones of the southeast inland. A sign of what is to come this cool season.
The development of El Niño is swift this year, with some similarities to 1972 and 1997, but not all El Niño events are ever the same. However, it is looking very unlikely that we avoid most of the nation avoiding drought at some point over the next 12 months. There will be variation in that drought intensity from district to district.
The reason I am of that belief is because we are likely to see the IOD tending more positive in nature which is a drier influence on the nation through late Winter to early Summer. Also, oceans around Australia are looking cooler than normal as well.
Time will tell, but the current short and medium range forecasts certainly paint the drier and warmer picture developing during the remainder of 2026.
I will see you next week.
Karl Lijnders is the founder of Weather Matters, which provides short, medium and longer-range weather forecasts, updated daily, with a focus on Australian ag and what the weather and climate means to you.
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