With a few weeks to go until the winter cropping season window shuts those who have taken a conservative approach to planting given low subsoil are racing the clock to get crops in and germinated. Anywhere north of Dubbo is fine but areas south of Dubbo will be in for a tricky season dealing with uneven germination and needing further rainfall to promote growth before it gets too cold (yes, there have been some frosts the past few days but daytime temperatures have been mild and soil temperatures warmer than normal for this time of year).
Queensland growers are planting into ideal conditions with a move towards chickpeas in some parts of Central Queensland. Some growers on the inner Downs are reducing winter programs and holding moisture for summer cropping mostly likely due to the appeal of sorghum prices.
Given the patchy break across NSW, crops are at varying stages. Those north of Dubbo in NSW through have largely completed programs with most crops germinated and in ideal condition. The remaining area to be sown is chickpeas in areas that have been too wet to finalise programs.
READ MORE: Flock liquidation consolidates as STR climbs into 2025
Central NSW is a little more variable with around 70% of programs completed in eastern areas where rainfall was better. Western areas have taken a more conservative approach with around 50% planted on the early rainfall with the balance of programs going in now after recent rainfall. Across central NSW about 35-45% of crops have germinated and are looking good with the remainder likely to germinate in the next couple of weeks into good moisture.
Southern NSW is even more variable with those who dry sow largely finished with about 25% germinated. Those that plant on moisture are only in the early stages with about 20% of programs completed and racing the clock to get crops in to get some late season growth before yield penalties are incurred. The very mild autumn and early winter has soil temperatures higher than normal with the lack of frosts providing hope of reasonable crop establishment (although it has turned very cold this week). Crop conditions at the end of June will give us a better indication on crop potential. In southern regions there will be a marked shift away from canola plantings (approximately 30%) to wheat and barley. Most growers in northern and central NSW have planted normal rotational programs.
Victorian cropping areas have been picking up bits and pieces and sowing has progressed to 70-90% for those that have dry sown. Good rainfall of up to 50mm for the south-west and Wimmera over the weekend will allow crops to germinate with some good topsoil moisture reserves. Crops in the Victorian Mallee are in the best shape, having received planting rain earlier, although they mostly missed rain last week and will be looking for more to build some moisture reserves. Central Victoria and the North East are getting crops in on recent rain but four to six weeks later than ideal. There has been a move away from canola to cereals, particularly cereal hay, considering the positive demand outlook for hay as the southern and western areas of Victoria stay dry. Hay stocks are very low, so growers are expecting solid demand and above average prices for hay this coming spring.
In South Australia, seeding would be about 75 to 80% complete across the whole Eyre Peninsula (EP) with germination around 20% at this stage. The 15-25mm received across the EP over the weekend will see the balance of programs completed and will be enough to germinate crops, albeit with limited subsoil moisture.
Canola hectares have been cut back by about 15% year-on-year due to residue issues with most of these plantings swung into barley or lentils that have increased another 5-8% at the expense of field peas and faba beans.
In other parts of South Australia grain producers are cautiously pushing ahead with seeding programs amid persistent dry conditions, with many adjusting inputs and delaying sowing in the hope of rain. Around 70% of producers have dry sown at least some of their crop, with 15% intending to dry sow everything and 15% stating they will not dry sow at all. Crops that have been sown are currently emerging with the shallower sown crops going ok, and the deeper sown crops struggling and needing rain for germination. Good general rain through the Yorke Peninsula, Fleurieu Peninsula and the south-east over the weekend will be enough to ensure dry sown crops are germinated and the balance of programs go in. Like in Victoria there has been a move away from canola to cereals, particularly cereal hay, with hay stocks very low, right across southern Australia.
The Mid-North and Murray Riverlands are the most at risk with 50% of the area dry sown and the balance of sowings now go in on the weekend rainfall that ranged from 10-40mm though parts of the mid-north, Murraylands and Mallee-Riverland districts. There will be significant cereals plantings for stubble cover.
Given the lack of feed available insects are likely to be an issue that will need to be managed which will likely be an issue right through SA, Victoria and southern NSW.
Good rainfall across the Geraldton and northern Kwinana zone over the past fortnight will allow growers to go with normal rotations albeit four to six weeks later than ideal. Parts of the WA central and south coast wheatbelt are getting a bit tight after missing out on the good rain last week, but they received a good early start which has them in good stead with crops well established but needing another drink. Elsewhere the WA cropping season is off to a solid start with good early germination into strong soil moisture which has been topped up by good follow-up rain.
Elders Business Intelligence Analyst Richard Koch combines a deep understanding of global market dynamics with regular insights from Elders staff on the ground, providing informed analysis shaped by both data and real-world observations.