The gap between Angus and British/Euro Feeder steers is narrowing, driven by strong global beef demand and opportunities for Australian beef producers in 2025.
The gap between Angus and British/Euro Feeder steers is falling
Strong global beef demand is underpinning Australian beef export
Australian grain exports to China and Southern Korea in 25-year highs
2024 was the highest beef import for the US in 36 years
The Southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia Autumn break looms as a boom or bust factor
2025 has the potential to be an extremely positive year for beef producers provided the season goes with them
Feeder cattle have had a stellar 2024, breaking records across the board and 2025 is shaping up to potentially follow suit. Market dynamics shift and change as seasons and trends do, but are underpinned by the processing sector who pay premiums and discounts for the product they are chasing. The 100-day grain-fed Angus contract is a strong lynchpin of the feeder cattle market. However, 2025 has seen the British/Euro 400kg+ feeder steer come into its own, which appears to be driven by an overarching demand for volume and security of supply.
To review the trends, buying activity of feeder cattle from AuctionsPlus was evaluated as follows: Steers 400kg+ from all breeds, Jan-2019 through to Feb-2025 reviewed. Split into breed groups of 1. Angus; 2. Angus Cross; 3. British/Euro and 4. Bos Indicus. While Wagyu feeders has been removed.
The five-year average gap between Angus and British/Euro steers is 57c. The gap peaked in April 2022 averaging 148c for the month. Across November 2021 to May 2022 the c/kg lwt gap averaged 109c. This was the peak of the cattle boom, at the same time the MLA Eastern Young Cattle Indicator averaged 1,116c. Across the entire year of 2023, (during the cattle market crash), the average gap between Angus and British/Euro steers was only 30c. The boom market times drives Angus premiums and buyer selection; and bust markets see the gap narrow as buyers look for quality of cattle regardless of breed.
This year is shaping up to be different, the gap has narrowed from 108c in June 2024, to 33 cents in January 2025, and as recorded on February 23, the gap is only 23c between Angus and British/Euro feeders on AuctionsPlus. Across the past five years, the gap has only been less than 25c six other times, principally during 2023, when the cattle market was in freefall.
Why is 2025 different? The demand globally and opportunity. Australia is taking advantage of grain-fed beef markets that the US is not supplying. 2024 was Australia’s largest year of export grain-fed beef to both China and Southern Korea in 25 years; while it was the largest to Japan since 2018, these records would not be possible if the US was not working off such a small base.
The US Beef imports show that 2024 is the highest number of beef imports in 36 years with 4,635 pounds of beef imported. Further to this, the US beef exports internationally are the lowest in four years, and below the five and seven-year averages.
The final potential “sleeping giant” is South Australia, Victoria and Southern NSW. The poor season in these regions saw them make up 51% of all 400kg+ feeders offered online, should these regions receive an Autumn break, supply could tighten significantly.
For the beef industry in Australia, market dynamics point to future supply of kill weight cattle tightening as lot feeders and traders prioritise volume over specific breeds. This trend is likely to continue, given the strong global demand for beef, the high levels the slaughter industry is processing and the ongoing expansion of the lot feeding industry.
During 2024 it was the largest offering of feeder cattle in 10 years. The December 2024 quarter experienced cattle on feed reaching 1.45 million head, compared to 672,000 head in June 2000.
For further review of 2024 for the record-breaking Lot Feeding Industry see Jamie-Lee Oldfield’s article Lotfeeding finds new highs as outlook supports future growth. The opportunity for Australia to capitalise on any global deficit of beef supply still primarily lays with the season, however the market dynamics are shaping up in favour for Australian beef producers.
Tom Rookyard is the General Manager at Ottley Livestock Finance.