It is anticipated there will be 23.3 million hectares planted to winter crop, which is 6 per cent above the 10-year average to 2022-23, however total Australian winter crop production is forecast to fall by 34pc to 44.9 million tonnes.
Following three consecutive record production years, the start of the winter cropping season in 2023-24 has been mixed, ABARES said in its Australian Crop Report on Tuesday.
Early autumn rainfall in some major cropping regions has replenished soil moisture levels and provided favourable planting conditions, however other parts of the country have seen lower than average rainfall and soil moisture levels have remained low, ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said.
“Winter crop production is expected to decline to 3pc below the 10-year average to 2022–23 of 46.4 million tonnes, and yield prospects are forecast to be below average due to the expectation of below-average rainfall for winter and spring," he said.
“On a more positive note, high crop prices, good seasons and record farm cash incomes over the last three years mean many growers will stay in a strong financial position despite the fall in production.
“This will incentivise farmers to plant a crop this season, while also allowing some growers to fallow a higher proportion of paddocks in dry areas."
The area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 2pc to 12.8 million hectares, while 4.3 million hectares of barley is expected to go into the ground, representing an increase of 4pc.
The canola planting is anticipated to fall by 11pc to 3.5 million hectares - the second-largest area on record - reflecting the less favourable start to the season and drier outlook, and to some extent the lower expected returns following recent falls in world canola prices.
The reduced winter crop production will come on the back of summer crop production that is expected to be above average, but below last season's record.
Total summer crop production in 2022–23 is estimated to fall to 5.1 million tonnes, down 8pc from the record production achieved in 2021–22, however it will remain 43pc above the 10-year average.
ABARES said production largely reflects lower forecast yields offsetting increases in planted area.
Improved affordability ahead for fertilisers
The run of good seasonal conditions enjoyed by many cropping regions over the past few years, and the resulting surge in grain and oilseed production, saw fertiliser demand grow despite price hikes.
After skyrocketing over the past two years due to the impacts of Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, a gradual return to historical averages is now being seen for most fertiliser prices.
A recent report by Rabobank said farm fertiliser affordability was starting to improve across the globe, with a likely recovery in application in some regions in 2023.
Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia said reasonable prices for agricultural commodities were the only reason fertiliser hadn’t become as unaffordable as it was in 2009 during the global economic crisis.
“The combination of still-positive commodity prices and lower fertiliser prices is helping fertiliser affordability for farmers,” Mr Pistoia said.
"Globally, consumption may take two or three years to recover, and the speed of recovery will depend on how long the current positive cycle lasts."
Since 2020, apparent fertiliser demand in Australia moved from 5.4 million to around 6.6 million metric tonnes, representing a 21pc increase, the report said.
“Although the conditions for the 2023 crop seasons are a bit different, they do not signal a reversal in the trend of historically-high cropping area and a significant application rate,” Mr Pistoia said.
“The drop in farm input prices is greater than that of commodity prices, and this is slowly improving farmers’ buying power.”