In recent weeks, the dynamics of the sheep and lamb markets in New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria have undergone significant changes, with clear shifts in both saleyard throughput, online offerings and processor demand.
These shifts have translated into noticeable changes in pricing, with the latest data offering a detailed picture of the evolving market landscape. A closer look at the numbers illustrates the growing pressure on supply chains and the resulting impact on producer returns.
Over the past three weeks, a sharp reduction in saleyard throughput has been evident across both states, with sheep and lamb yardings down significantly. Across NSW and Victoria combined, weekly sheep yardings have declined by 25%, from 98,327 head per week to just 73,732. Lamb yardings have also dropped, falling 21% from 187,419 head to 147,947.
These figures are consistent with the broader trend of reduced supply availability entering the saleyards. However, this drop in throughput has not been matched by a similar decline in slaughter activity—in fact, the opposite has occurred.
Processing volumes, a rough proxy for demand—particularly from meat processors—have been climbing. Across the two states, sheep slaughter has increased by 12% over the same three-week period, from 128,960 head per week to 144,610 head. Lamb slaughter also lifted by 12%, from 340,796 to 381,082 head per week.
This divergence between falling saleyard supply and increasing processor demand has led to heightened competition for available stock, with a consequential lift in pricing across both the sheep and lamb sectors.
The price response has been strongest in the sheep—or mutton—market. Average mutton prices across NSW and VIC have risen from 426 cents per kilogram carcass weight (c/kg cwt) to 565 c/kg cwt, a sharp increase of 24.5%. This price gain is clearly visible in the chart below which shows mutton well ahead of lamb categories in terms of price growth.
Lamb price increases, while more modest, have still been positive across all categories. Restocker lambs have led the way with a 9.2% increase, followed by light lambs at 7.1%, heavy lambs at 5.3%, Merino lambs at 5.2%, and trade lambs at 4.9%.
Adding to the tightening physical market conditions, the online space has also reflected a clear contraction in supply and a firming in prices. AuctionsPlus, a key platform for digital livestock trading, reported a 30.5% decline in total sheep and lamb offerings over the past week, with numbers falling from 55,180 head to just 38,334.
This significant drop in online listings aligns with the broader trend of reduced availability across saleyards. In response to this tightening supply, the AuctionsPlus Restocker Lamb Indicator (ARLI) has strengthened notably, rising 4.6% over the week from 716 to 749 cents per kilogram. This lift reinforces the strong restocker demand evident across multiple platforms and signals continued buyer competition despite constrained market offerings.
The supply and demand situation over the last three weeks becomes even clearer when broken down by state, as shown in the chart below. In NSW, sheep yardings fell by 26%, from 68,597 head to 50,928 head per week, while sheep slaughter lifted by 5%, from 88,433 head to 93,140. Lamb yardings in NSW dropped 23%, from 119,640 to 92,280, while lamb slaughter crept up by 2%, from 119,857 to 122,801.
These figures suggest that while fewer animals are coming through saleyards, processors are still maintaining or even increasing kill volumes, indicating more livestock being sourced through direct consignment or other channels.
The story in Victoria is even more pronounced. Sheep yardings declined 23%, from 29,730 to 22,804, but sheep slaughter jumped an impressive 27%, from 40,527 to 51,470. Lamb yardings in Victoria fell 18%, from 67,779 to 55,667, while lamb slaughter surged 17%, from 220,939 to 258,281.
These figures suggest intense processor activity in Victoria, likely driven by poorer seasonal conditions and processor throughput targeting relatively cheaper southern livestock, all in the face of reduced supply flowing through traditional saleyard channels.
When viewed together, this data highlights a key dynamic in current market conditions: processors are chasing stock more aggressively, even as saleyard supply is contracting. This is putting upward pressure on prices, particularly in the mutton market, where supply seems especially tight relative to processing needs. The strong lift in mutton values—up 24.5%—reflects this pressure clearly.
In the lamb market, price responses are more muted, likely due to slightly better relative availability and a broader mix of restocker and finishing buyer activity that moderates overall processor competition. Additionally, the more moderate lamb price increases may have been weighed down somewhat by the recent Trump tariff announcements upon Aussie lamb exports to the USA.
Despite some “muddying of the water” in interpreting these statistics—given that saleyard throughput is not a perfect supply proxy and slaughter numbers blend auction purchases with over-the-hooks transactions—the overall pattern is quite consistent. Saleyard supply is clearly tightening, while processor demand remains firm or growing. This classic supply-demand imbalance is driving prices upward, especially where availability has tightened the most.
The more granular pricing information also suggests differentiated demand across lamb categories. Restocker lambs, with the strongest price lift, indicate renewed interest from graziers and backgrounders—possibly in anticipation of improved seasonal conditions or rising forward pricing expectations.
On the other hand, more modest gains in heavy/trade, lamb categories could reflect more cautious processor demand or a balancing effect from concerns over ongoing export demands in key markets for lamb like the USA given the recent tariff announcement.
As supply remains constrained and processors continue to push to fill kill schedules, it’s likely that elevated prices—particularly for mutton—will persist in the near term. However, much will depend on seasonal conditions, producer confidence, and potential shifts in international demand settings. For now, the market signals are clear: livestock supply is tightening, processors are hungry for throughput, and prices are responding in kind.
This evolving landscape reinforces the importance of understanding both state-level and combined-market dynamics when interpreting livestock market movements. The data and analysis from MLA, Episode3 and AuctionsPlus offer valuable insights into how these pressures are playing out in real-time, enabling producers and industry stakeholders to make more informed decisions as they navigate this increasingly complex and competitive market environment.
Matt Dalgleish is a director of Episode3.net and co-host of the Agwatchers podcast.