A surge in US beef imports in the early part of 2025, driven by concerns over looming tariffs, has reshaped global trade dynamics and presented a timely opportunity for Australia to expand its market share, particularly into China. While American beef exporters face access issues into China and dwindling demand, Australian beef has rebounded strongly in 2025, positioning itself to capitalise on this volatility.
US beef imports in March 2025 totalled 502 million pounds, marking the third-highest monthly total on record, fuelled by pre-tariff stockpiling. Imports for Q1 reached 1.482 billion pounds, with Brazil and Australia contributing significantly to the uptick. Canada, by contrast, saw an 8% year-on-year decline, with its share of US imports falling from 23% to 17%.
This surge in early-year imports has prompted the USDA to revise Q2 import forecasts up by 160 million pounds to 1.25 billion. However, as these imports are front-loaded, forecasts for Q3 and Q4 were trimmed slightly. Despite this adjustment, the overall import forecast for 2026 remains historically high at 4.975 billion pounds and just shy of 2025's record level, driven by tight domestic lean beef supply and the ongoing need to blend imported beef trim.
On the US beef export front, March saw US beef shipments hold relatively steady at 256 million pounds, supported by solid demand from Taiwan, Mexico, and Japan. However, Chinese demand, once a major beef export growth market, has cooled considerably due to the continued absence of recertification for nearly 400 US beef establishments.
While March exports to China did recover modestly from February, recent export sales reports show a steep drop, suggesting weak flows into China through April and May. US beef exports to China have collapsed in recent times from over 2,000 tonnes per week to around 50 tonnes, reflecting the severity of this market access issue.
This weakening of US market presence in China has left an opening, which Australian beef exporters are exploiting effectively. April 2025 saw total Australian beef exports to all trade destinations surge by 13% month-on-month to 127,172 tonnes, setting a new April record and approaching all-time monthly highs. This performance is 21% higher than April 2024 and 57% above the five-year average.
Aussie beef exports to the US rose to 37,213 tonnes in April, up 15% on March, and sits 37% higher than the same month last year, and a massive 141% above the five-year April average. This reflects both strong US import demand and Australia's rising competitiveness in the market, especially as Canadian supply retreats.
In China, Australia shipped 21,572 tonnes in April, a 6% lift from March and places current flows 45% higher year-on-year, and 38% above the five-year average. The sustained rise is underpinned by a softening of US competition and renewed Chinese appetite for Australian beef. In the first months of 2025, flows from Australia to China are up 30% over the same period in 2023 and 2024.
Recent data underscores this transition. As highlighted below, the US share of the Chinese beef import market climbed steeply to over 10% in 2021–22 as the first Trump administration’s Phase One trade deal saw China favouring US beef over Aussie beef. An end to the Phase One deal and US beef becoming more uncompetitive saw their market share into China ease to just 7% in 2024. Australia, meanwhile, fully recovered from access issues and trade tensions to reclaim 12% of the Chinese market by 2024.
The story told by this trend is clear. US exporters have faced a loss off access to China due to regulatory hurdles and ongoing trade/tariff disputes while Australian exporters, long trusted by Chinese buyers, are regaining ground. The divergence is likely to persist if China and the US fail to resolve their recertification and tariff impasse. Even if trade relations thaw, Australia’s recent gains provide it with a base from which to defend and re-grow market share.
Looking ahead, US beef export capacity is expected to remain constrained. With US production forecast to fall 5% in 2026, annual beef exports are projected to decline 6% to 2.495 billion pounds. At the same time, high domestic US cattle and beef prices and stiff competition from Australia will continue to limit US export growth.
For Australia, the opportunity is clear. Continued softness in US exports, particularly to China, opens up space to reinforce supply relationships, win new business, and entrench itself as a key partner for Chinese importers.
However, this advantage could be eroded if a future “Phase Two” trade deal between the US and China were to favour American beef explicitly. Until then, Australia's combination of high-quality supply and consistent access gives it the upper hand in a reshaped global beef trade landscape.
Matt Dalgleish is a director of Episode3.net and co-host of the Agwatchers podcast.