As the run of excellent seasonal conditions in the eastern states has been underpinning the market for the past year, attention still needs to be given to the regions experiencing drier than average conditions. According to Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), between March and May 2021, Western Victoria and Southeast South Australia have received very much below average rainfall - which has started to impact upon producers’ decisions to hold, or sell, as the challenge of the winter months, lie ahead.
To highlight the rainfall deficiency in the area, Mildura in Victoria has only received 58mm for the first five months of 2021, with 45mm of that total falling in January. Despite traditionally being a winter rainfall area, the start to the year is unseasonably low (as represented by the red regions on Map 1). The dry run will surely be adding some unwanted pressure to producers, who would now be considering whether to supplement feed through the winter or destock and make the most of the robust livestock prices on offer.
As the first week of winter is behind us, these drier regions will be hoping for at least average rainfall through the Winter to increase their chances for a good spring. Figure 4 illustrates a three-month outlook for Australia’s chances of exceeding median rainfall. The forecast looks promising for all parts of NSW, Queensland and NT and parts of WA and SA, however, there is a lower chance when looking through southern parts of Victoria and Southeast South Australia. It is promising to see the Northwestern parts of Victoria with a high chance of above average medium rainfall through Winter after a dry summer and autumn.