Dry Autumn Run in SA and Victorian Border Regions sees Online Listing Jump

As the run of excellent seasonal conditions in the eastern states has been underpinning the market for the past year, attention still needs to be given to the regions experiencing drier than average conditions. According to Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), between March and May 2021, Western Victoria and Southeast South Australia have received very much below average rainfall - which has started to impact upon producers’ decisions to hold, or sell, as the challenge of the winter months, lie ahead.

To highlight the rainfall deficiency in the area, Mildura in Victoria has only received 58mm for the first five months of 2021, with 45mm of that total falling in January. Despite traditionally being a winter rainfall area, the start to the year is unseasonably low (as represented by the red regions on Map 1). The dry run will surely be adding some unwanted pressure to producers, who would now be considering whether to supplement feed through the winter or destock and make the most of the robust livestock prices on offer.

AuctionsPlus’ commercial sheep throughput for the Autumn months of 2020 and 2021 illustrates the substantial increase in listings from regions of South Australia and Victoria. As seen in figure 2, Northwest Victoria has seen an increase of 74%, Northern Victoria 60% and a 107% rise in listings for Southwest Victoria.

South Australia paints a similar story for Autumn listings, with some regions increasing by over 100 per cent from the previous period in 2020. Lower SE SA increased by 170%, Central & Hills SA by 86% and the Yorke Peninsula up 92%.

As the first week of winter is behind us, these drier regions will be hoping for at least average rainfall through the Winter to increase their chances for a good spring. Figure 4 illustrates a three-month outlook for Australia’s chances of exceeding median rainfall. The forecast looks promising for all parts of NSW, Queensland and NT and parts of WA and SA, however, there is a lower chance when looking through southern parts of Victoria and Southeast South Australia. It is promising to see the Northwestern parts of Victoria with a high chance of above average medium rainfall through Winter after a dry summer and autumn.