Last week, MLA & the Australian Lot Feeders Association (ALFA) released the Q3 Lot Feeding Brief report providing detailed insights into how the increasingly dominant feedlot sector is performing.
When combining both the ABS Q3 slaughter & production numbers with the Feedlot brief turnoff figures, the splits between grass and grainfed slaughter numbers can be analysed.
On the backdrop of this, what is important to recognise is how the substantial expansion in feedlot capacity which translates to numbers on feed – to the tune OF 50% or 508,000 head – has driven an immense rise in grainfed cattle turnoff.
For context, in the StoneX H2 2025 Australian Cattle & beef market outlook report, I forecast grainfed turnoff could potentially rise by 5% in 2025, when in fact it looks likely that grainfedturnoff could potentially rise by 15% or more.
On average, in Q3, 74,000 head of grainfed cattle were processed per week, a new record. Comparing the corresponding weekly grainfed kill numbers in Q3 2023, throughput volumes have risen 55% or 26,500 head in 3 years.
Whereas grassfed kill has only risen 17% or 17,100 head on the same quarters, indicating the sharp rise we’re seeing in processing throughput is increasingly being dominated by grainfed cattle.
An important structural shift and inflection point to the way Australian processors prioritise hook space.
FIGURE 1.
The significance of Figure 1 above is that it depicts a very strong processing sector despite the fact that QLD and the broader north isn’t experiencing broad drought conditions. Consider the previous herd cycle high in 2014/15 when QLD was in the midst of a near decade long drought, this time in 2025 the dynamics are different.
The red line, showing weekly grainfed throughput numbers really indicates the sharp rise in grainfed turnoff we’ve seen since 2023 – expect this to continue seasonally with large turnoff numbers of grainfed cattle in Q1 2026.
Grassfed slaughter and overall beef production continues to dominate though, accounting for 61.1% of total slaughter in Q3, whereas grainfed slaughter numbers contributed 38.9%.
The extensive nature of our production system mean grassfed slaughter numbers will continue to maintain a significant presence in total kill numbers, though the trend is clear in terms of a shift to a grainfed centric production system
I’ve written about this transformation of the supply chain in this column previously.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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