Australia’s once strong grass-fed bullock focussed production system has experienced rapid change in the past decade. The 2013-15 drought was a defining moment which transformed the beef industries supply chain and the marketing decisions of producers.
Quarterly grass-fed male slaughter numbers have fallen by 50% or 223,000 head on average in the previous decade.
The 2013-15 drought was a defining moment, which transformed the beef industry's supply chain and marketing decisions of producers.
The analysis conducted provides insights to readers ensuring they remain ahead of the pack in terms of staying informed.
Australia’s once strong grass-fed bullock focussed production system has experienced rapid change in the past decade.
So significant, that quarterly grass-fed male cattle slaughter has fallen by 50% or 223,000 head on average from the 2000-2014 quarterly average, compared to the 2015-2024 quarterly average.
Ultimately, the grass-fed bullock production model never truly recovered following the herd liquidation years of 2013-15, as producers pivoted to have a clear focus on becoming a feeder centric production system.
In Figure 1, grass-fed male kill numbers on a quarterly basis are represented as a bar chart, on the left hand axis, the two dotted lines in black and red running horizontal, represent the quarterly average grass-fed male kill volumes between 2000-14 and 2015-24. Showing the stark decline in grass-fed male kill numbers between the two periods.
FIGURE 1: Male Grass-fed Kill Numbers.
Figure 2 below provides further evidence to the shift Australian producers have made to their marketing channels since 2015. The chart examines yearly grass-fed male kill numbers versus grain-fed slaughter. The two dotted vertical lines represent the 2013-15 drought period, where the transformation to a feeder steer centric production model began.
FIGURE 2: Grass-fed Male vs Grain-fed Slaughter Numbers.
Admittedly, due to current reporting structures, there is no way to decipher fed cattle slaughter into sexes, it is reported as a combination of male and female fed cattle, which means heifers are included in the grain-fed slaughter volumes.
The trend is clear though, grass-fed bullock production in Australia since 2015 has experienced sharp supply reductions in the face of the grain-fed system in Australia growing substantially.
There are several reasons for this transformation;
The ability to carry more breeding cows with feeder progeny are turned off at a younger age, reducing pressure on grass budgets – as heavier grass-fed steers consume more than a lighter feeder.
Significant variability in seasonal conditions limiting the ability of producers to carry steers through to bullock weights.
The lot feeding sector diversifying its feeding programs to suit different cattle types, from short-fed supermarket and 100-day cattle through to longer-fed Wagyu programs.
Signals from the market for more consistent delivery of beef supply both from a seasonal and quality aspect (this is not to discount the high quality grass-fed product we produce).
Further evidence to this shift is major beef export processing facilities across the country investing in their kill chains to handle heavier carcase weights delivered by grain-fed cattle.
Examples include JBS Dinmore, AMG Cootamundra, ACC Cannon Hill and TFI Murray Bridge, with these businesses adjusting processing floor plans, upgrading cold storage capacity in the chillers for larger carcases and improving boning room capacity, all to do with handling heavier grain-fed cattle.
I have previously stated on episode of the StoneX Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report podcast that I believed the 2017-19 drought was the turning point for the restructuring of the beef industry's cattle marketing strategies when in fact it was clearly the 2013-15 drought.
When analysing these figures and applying industry knowledge alongside the data, we can begin to paint a picture of how certain events can change the sector.
For readers, this information provides insights into how the beef industry has changed over the longer term and subsequently communicates information of importance to the bigger drivers and factors that influence the beef industry.
Understanding larger macro-economic trends ensures you remain informed and ahead of the pack in terms of industry information.
This analysis may assist producers with more strategic decision making such as transition away from or into grass-fed bullock production.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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