Australia’s livestock outlook over the next couple of years is beginning to take shape, and the latest ABARES Agricultural Commodities report (March 2026) provides an updated set of forecasts for production, prices and industry value across the meat sector.
For livestock producers the key message is that the current supply cycle is starting to shift again. Beef and sheep markets are expected to move from a period of heavy turn-off toward a gradual rebuilding phase, while competing proteins such as pork and poultry continue their steadier, more controlled growth trajectory.
Starting with beef, ABARES expects production to remain historically strong in the near term before easing as the cattle cycle turns. Beef production is forecast to reach roughly 2.75 million tonnes in 2025–26, keeping output near the upper end of the historical range. However, production is expected to decline to around 2.6 million tonnes in 2026–27 as slaughter numbers begin to fall. The reason largely reflects the livestock cycle. Heavy turn-off over the past few seasons has reduced herd numbers, and producers are expected to begin retaining more cattle to rebuild breeding herds. As more females and young cattle are held back, fewer animals move through the processing system.
That tightening in supply will gradually influence price trends. ABARES expects the national saleyard indicator price to average around 770 c/kg carcase weight in 2025–26, before easing to roughly 705 c/kg in 2026–27. While this represents a decline in the forecast period, those prices still sit comfortably above long-term averages. In other words, while the market may soften from recent peaks, beef prices remain relatively strong in historical terms.
Exports remain the dominant driver shaping the cattle market. Australia is forecast to export around 1.6 million tonnes of beef in 2025–26, easing slightly to about 1.5 million tonnes in 2026–27. With such a large proportion of production heading offshore, international demand plays a central role in determining livestock prices. The gross value of cattle slaughter and live exports is forecast to reach around $22–23 billion in 2025–26, before easing to approximately $19–20 billion the following year as both production and prices moderate.
The outlook for sheep meat follows a broadly similar pattern. Production is forecast to remain high in the near term, with output sitting around 880 to 900 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, before easing as flock rebuilding begins. Over the past few years producers have responded to seasonal conditions and market signals with significant turn-off, which has reduced flock numbers. As producers begin retaining more breeding stock, slaughter volumes are expected to decline slightly.
ABARES expects lamb prices to average around 760 c/kg in 2025–26, easing modestly to about 710 c/kg in 2026–27. While that represents some softening, prices remain well above levels seen during earlier periods of the livestock cycle. The gross value of sheep meat and live sheep production is forecast to reach roughly $6.3 billion in 2025–26, supported by both domestic consumption and export demand. Sheep meat exports alone are expected to be worth around $5.6 billion.
Although beef and sheep markets are largely driven by the livestock cycle and global demand, developments in competing proteins still play a role in shaping domestic consumption trends. In contrast to the more cyclical red meat sectors, pork and poultry production tend to expand gradually under tightly managed supply systems.
Chicken remains the most consumed meat in Australia and continues to expand steadily. ABARES forecasts chicken meat production to reach roughly 1.4 million tonnes in 2025–26. Poultry prices have historically been relatively stable, sitting around 215–225 c/kg for much of the past decade, before lifting to approximately 270 c/kg in 2023–24. From there the outlook suggests prices will ease slightly, drifting back toward the mid-250 c/kg range over the coming years.
The pork sector has experienced a stronger lift in prices. Pig prices have risen sharply since 2020 and are forecast to continue climbing from roughly 395 c/kg in 2023–24 to close to 480–490 c/kg by 2026–27. While the pork and poultry industries remain largely domestically focused compared with red meat, their pricing still influences the broader protein market. When chicken remains significantly cheaper than other proteins, it tends to absorb a greater share of consumer demand.
However, the Australian beef and sheep industries operate in a very different market structure. A large proportion of production is exported each year, meaning international demand plays a far greater role in determining livestock prices than domestic protein competition. Even if consumers shift toward cheaper proteins locally, strong global demand for beef and sheep meat can continue to support Australian livestock markets.
Across the broader agricultural sector, ABARES expects the total value of livestock production to ease from around $46 billion in 2025–26 to roughly $43 billion in 2026–27. That decline largely reflects softer prices and lower production following the recent period of elevated turn-off.
For producers, the overall picture is one of cyclical adjustment rather than structural decline. Beef and sheep markets are expected to move gradually from a high production phase toward a rebuilding period, tightening supply over time. At the same time, export demand will remain the key factor underpinning livestock prices, allowing Australia’s red meat sector to operate within a global market that is far larger than the domestic protein landscape alone.
Matt Dalgleish is a director of Episode3.net and co-host of the Agwatchers podcast.