In late May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the quarter 1 slaughter and production numbers for livestock and in the same week, Meat & Livestock Australia and the Australian Lot Feeders' Association released the Q1 Feedlot report.
The data provides a complete picture of how the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 has performed at a supply level. The headline figures combined across both reports were:
The main theme of the ABS data release is that processors are continuing to handle large volumes of cattle presented to market – with the investments made by different businesses in chiller capacity, chains handling heavier grainfed bodies and a recovering / recovered labour force driving greater capacity, paying off.
As per Figure 1 above, In Q1, adult cattle slaughter hit 2.302 million head, up 6% or 130,000 head year-on-year. That places the Q1 result in the top 10% of quarterly throughput since 1972 – indicative of how strong supply is currently.
At a state level, NSW & VIC are both operating in the top 10% of quarters for the past 10 years, whilst Queensland, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia all have more available room to increase throughput. This is an important consideration for producers when seeking hook space for kill cattle and making marketing plans.
Queensland’s weekly throughput has lifted on average by 4,000 head per week compared to Q1 2025 – reflective of additional shifts coming online for processors in the state.
The swift decisions made by northern NSW producers has pushed that female turnoff figure sharply higher, the other major states of Queensland and Victoria were up 4% and 6% respectively.
In Q1, Australia processed 1.221 million head of females, the highest first quarter result since the 70s, year-on-year that’s growth of 7% year-on-year. Underpinning this growth was NSW, which saw its female kill lift 18% or 51,000 head compared to the Q1 2025.
Importantly, despite headlines, fundamentally due to the fertility of the breeder herd, we can continue to process large numbers of females without the broader herd entering significant levels of liquidation like in did during the 2017-19 drought.
To be sure, the herd will liquidate in 2026, northern NSW the driver of that, but when the cycle turns, likely 2027 the recovery in the herd will be far faster than we’ve seen before because of that fertility.
MLA and ALFA’s Q1 2026 Feedlot report confirms the anecdotal beliefs of the market that exporters and brands were cutting short feeding programs to get product into the China market prior to the safeguard quota being hit.
The headline is that grainfed turnoff reached 1.046 million head. Queensland cattle on feed lifted 9% year on year, yet turnoff lifted 31%. Similarly, NSW numbers on feed were up 13% and turnoff was higher by 23%.
The discrepancy between turnoff outpacing growth in numbers on feed is explained by exporters pulling China cattle off feed earlier to ensure it hits the marketplace prior to the safeguard limit being hit.
Whether this trend of grainfed turnoff above 1 million head per quarter can be sustained, will be confirmed as 2026 progresses and exporters reposition grainfed programs post the China safeguard limit being hit.
An important indicator to monitor, is the grass versus grainfed slaughter numbers measured in percentage terms and the Q1 report highlights the fundamental, structural shift processors are making towards grainfed cattle.
As per Figure 2 below, on a weekly basis, grassfed slaughter declined 4% YoY, falling to 96,583 head on average processed per week. This was the first time since Q1 2024 grassfed slaughter has fallen below 100,000 head on average per week. Whereas grainfed weekly slaughter hit a new high of 80,517 on average per week and rose 22% YoY.
As above, whether this can be sustained will be determined later in the year. But what is clear, is the structural shift processors are making towards a prioritization of grainfed cattle. Grainfed slaughter accounted for 45.5% of total slaughter in Q1, the highest level since Q3 2022, which was the depths of the rebuild.
Albeit difficult to measure, what is clear, is that despite female slaughter numbers for Q1 reaching their highest Q1 levels since the 1970s – meaning big numbers of cows were processed, grassfed slaughter still declined. What that suggests, is that more heifers are now entering feedlots than ever before.
For a producer, there are three key factors this data means for you.
The results of both datasets reiterate the importance of processor throughput, as high supplies of cattle is likely to continue to present in 2026, maintenance of these large kill numbers will likely be required to ensure the supply chain doesn’t get bottlenecked.
Understanding the macro level functioning of the supply chain for a producer can help ensure that you remain aware and up to date with opportunities and potential challenges for the marketplace’ you sell your stock into. For example, sale of slaughter cattle to different states where capacity is less of an issue than others.
Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.
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