August bull sales on AuctionsPlus have seen multiple new record prices as six-figure sires hit the market. However, analysis of over 5,000 sale bulls points to a different picture for the overall state of the bull market. Average bull prices are down 7% from July and down 32% from August 2022.
Key Points
Average sale bull prices are down 32% from last year’s record season
Supply of bulls is up 8%, and clearance rate is down 7 percentage points
Limousin bulls saw a big increase in offerings, while Belmont reds achieved a 100% clearance
After some individual sale results exceeded expectations, the comment was made that either the bull market had to catch up with commercial cattle prices or commercial cattle prices had to catch up with the bull market. The former has eventuated, with the bull market down 32% YOY, catching up to the 50-60% decline in young cattle prices.
Figure 1: AuctionsPlus bull prices and EYCI prices January 2016 – August 2023
Another element that is holding bull prices up is lower clearance rates. Many studs still have $6,000 reserves and $2,000 increments. This is supporting average prices while clearance rates have fallen. If reserves were lowered, then average prices would also decrease while clearance would be improved.
The supply of bulls offered on AuctionsPlus has increased from August 2022. A total of 5,183 bulls were offered online in the last month, compared to 4,815 last year - an increase of 8%.
Clearance rate for the month reached 80%, down 7 percentage points from 87% last year.
Prices across all breeds offered on AuctionsPlus averaged $10,537/head, down 32% from last year’s August average of $15,570/head.
The top three sale averages were achieved by Te Mania Angus at $16,180 across 111 bulls, Talbalba Herefords at $15,212 across 52 bulls, and Rennylea Angus at $14,712 across 215 bulls.
Four elite sires sold for six figures with Truro Sherlock S188 taking out the top price for the month on AuctionsPlus at $130,000.
Breed-specific results
Angus bull prices have slipped further from July to August. Year-on-year, prices have fallen further from the 25% drop in July to decline a further 34% in August. The number of bulls offered was up slightly, clearance fell to 84% and prices averaged $10,901/head.
A single sale of Belmont Reds saw a total clearance of 97 bulls for an average $13,794/head.
The supply of Limousin bulls increased by a massive 68% which caused prices to decline by 39% to $7,075/head..
Poll Hereford prices slipped by only 8% to average $8,177/head for a 71% clearance. Hereford prices declined 22% year-on-year to $10,329/head for a 60% clearance across 440 bulls offered.
Table 1. AuctionsPlus sale results of the top seven breeds by offerings, August 2023.
This summary not only provides an update of the state of the bull market, but also provides bull breeders with an industry average to benchmark themselves against as well as a guide for bull buyers before they make their next purchase.
As always, if you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to email me at dthomson@auctionsplus.com.au